TFM Midday Update 12-20-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 3 @ 6.50
Corn opened around 5 cents higher with a boost from the soy complex but has faded from the open as Argentinian weather remains in question
Corn is trading near its lowest prices in nearly 4 months as export sales remain very slow and ethanol demand is looking poor for the winter
Freezing temperatures are pushing through the northwestern Plains and snow into the Midwest, and warmer temps will likely hold off until the new year
Argentina was forecast to receive much needed rain this coming into this weekend but now the forecasts are showing less moisture and not enough to break the drought

Jan soybeans up 19 @ 14.79
Soybeans are trading significantly higher today as all eyes are on South American weather
Argentina is still dealing with extreme drought, but forecasts were calling for about an inch of rain over this weekend, but now forecasts are showing less and more scattered showers
The 15-dollar level should prove to be strong resistance, and within a month China will likely majorly slow down purchases of US beans as they hold out for Brazil’s harvest
Crude oil was trading about 50 cents a barrel higher but has slipped and is now lower, but bean oil and meal remain higher

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Mar Chi wheat up 5 @ 7.54, Mar KC up 5 @ 8.48, & Mar MNPLS up 11 @ 9.19
Wheat is trading slightly higher on par with corn this morning and is likely getting some spillover buying from the soy complex
The sub-zero temperatures expected for parts of the southern plains are a threat for the winter wheat crops
Argentina’s wheat crop is plagued by drought and Australia’s record waterlogged crop is about to be harvested but much of that will be feed grade or worse
World supply and underlying fundamentals remain bullish for wheat but it is just not enough to get non-commercials to exit their short positions

Feb LC down 0.275 @ 155.775 & Jan FC up 1.525 @ 183.625
Live cattle are moderately lower while feeders are around a dollar higher despite the gains in corn today
Cash was steady last week but the movements higher in boxed beef are improving packer margins and should cause them to pay up no less than steady this week
Consumer demand is still strong for beef, and this has been reflected in the boxed prices
Choice cuts up 1.00 and select up 3.12
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/19: up 0.01 @ 179.51

Feb hogs down 1.150 @ 84.550 & Feb pork cutout UNCH @ 93.675
Hogs are being bear spread this morning with losses in the front months but gains in the deferred contracts as cash fell and the cutouts dropped by 2.51
Friday’s sharp move higher was technical after contracts were oversold but now futures appear to be consolidating near the 85-dollar mark
Packers may be more aggressive today offering a boost in cash
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.79
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/20: down 0.33 @ 81.55

Amanda Brill