TFM Midday Update 12-22-2020

CORN

  • March up 1 @ 4.41 & Dec down 1 @ 4.19
  • Funds net buyers 8K contracts – O/I +2,900 contracts
  • No daily sales from USDA in over a week
  • Drought monitor starting to look concerning heading into winter
  • 7-day forecast expects only light amounts of rain for S. Brazil & Argentina
  • Brazil low on corn until June – US still positioned to be top exporter

SOYBEANS

  • Jan down 2 @ 12.40 & Nov down 4 10.86
  • Funds net buyers 6K contracts – O/I +4,000 contracts
  • 7-day forecast expects heavy rains in northern & central Brazil
  • March soybean meal continues to push higher into new contract highs
  • March futures have traded above 30-day average since Aug 13th
  • Potential trimmings in Jan 12 USDA report adds bullish pressure

WHEAT

  • Mar up 6 @ 6.17, Mar KC up 5 @ 5.79, March MNPLS up 1 @ 5.80
  • Funds net buyers of 2K contracts of SRW wheat – O/I -30 contracts
  • Russia & Ukraine will get period snow & rain throughout next 2 weeks
  • HRW wheat production areas will be left mostly dry for next 2 weeks
  • US stocks to usage ratio at 41% – needs to drop below 40% to affect prices
  • Wheat likely to stay supported this week but sideways

CATTLE

  • Feb LC down .85 @ 113.82 & Jan FC down .50 @ 140.12
  • Holiday ahead keeping trade sideways & volume light
  • Cold storage report released today @ 2:00 p.m. CT
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 120K head
  • No cash price developed for LC & @ 139.56 up 1.08 as of 12/18 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -874 contracts for Feb LC & O/I: +567 contracts for Jan FC

HOGS

  • February Hogs up .15 @ 66.07 & Feb Pork Cutout up .17 @ 76.22
  • Support holding in Feb futures based on support in pork values
  • Traders looking for price direction in Wednesday’s Hogs & Pig report – 2:00 p.m. CT
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 480K & runs expected at 63K head
  • Cash lean index @ 62.55 down 1.17 as of 12/18
  • O/I: -261 positions for hogs & pork cutout futures +19 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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