TFM Midday Update 12-22-2021


  • Mar corn up 3 @ 6.01
  • Traders are putting weather premium into the market
  • Most meteorologists see little change in the Brazil forecast that has stressed the first corn crop
  • GFS weather model forecast is for normal to seven degrees above normal temperatures for the next couple weeks in Argentina
  • Strong ethanol demand is helping the corn market
  • May corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10.74 per bushel


  • Jan soybeans up 21 @ 13.29
  • Soybeans trading over 13.00 could suggest that the market will test 14.00 if weather in South America remains dry
  • Omicron virus fears seem to have subsided
  • Soybeans have closed higher for several consecutive sessions
  • March soybean meal prices are at their highest level in 7 months
  • Export sales remain bearish and Chinese soybean purchases from the US are down 29% from last year


  • Mar wheat up 11 @ 8.10, Mar KC up 7 @ 8.48, Mar MNPLS up 3 @ 10.28
  • Wheat is at 3 week highs
  • HRW cash markets are strong
  • Dryness in the US southern plains remains a concern
  • No moisture expected in the southern plains for the next 10 days
  • Stochastics show upward momentum for all three wheat classes
  • Some meteorologists are predicting a “polar vortex” in the US in January


  • Feb LC unchanged @ 136.925 & Mar FC down 0.475 @ 161.350
  • Yesterday’s rally seemed to be technical in nature
  • Spillover from strength in stocks and other markets also helped cattle
  • Weaker boxed beef may indicate less demand
  • Cash trade was lower yesterday
  • Cattle On Feed report is due for release on tomorrow afternoon
  • Choice cuts down 0.99 and select down 0.75
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/21: down 0.36 @ 160.34


  • Feb hogs up 0.775 @ 83.200 & Feb pork cutout up 0.975 @ 93.275
  • Traders may anticipate a friendly Hogs and Pigs report (which is due for release tomorrow afternoon)
  • Strong cash yesterday may be an indication of aggressive buying during the holidays
  • A large supply of market ready hogs remain available to the market
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 2.18
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/22: up 0.09 @ 73.02


Brandon Doherty

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