TFM Midday Update 12-26-2025

CORN

Corn futures are slightly lower at midday with March futures down 2 cents currently trading at 449.
Export strength continues to serve as a key bullish pillar for the market, with commitments as of Dec. 11 running 31% ahead of the same point in 2024 and currently on pace to meet USDA’s record 3.2-billion-bushel projection. Export competition for U.S. corn is not expected to intensify until mid-2026, when Brazilian supplies are projected to become available.
The latest Commitment of Traders report, dated December 16, showed managed money holding a net short position of 52,672 contracts in the corn futures and options markets.

Soybean futures are lower at midday with March futures down 3 cents currently trading at 1073-1/2.
The Christmas Eve rally marked just the fifth positive session for March soybean futures throughout the entire month of December.
Rainfall across much of Brazil is expected to be more scattered over the coming week, with above-normal temperatures increasing the potential for some crop stress. Improved rainfall prospects are expected to return after the New Year.

Wheat futures are quiet at midday with March CBOT wheat down 3 cents trading at 519, March KCBOT wheat down a ¼ cent trading at 533-3/4 and March Spring wheat down 1-1/2 cents trading at 566-1/2 currently.
Additional Russian strikes on Black Sea infrastructure were reported over the Christmas holiday, following earlier optimism tied to preliminary peace talks earlier in the month.
U.S. wheat exports are off to a strong start, with shipments through Dec. 11 running 24% above last year and total commitments (sales plus shipments) up 22%.

Matthew Lucas