TFM Midday Update 12-28-20


  • March up 1 1/2 to 452 1/2 and May up 1 3/4 to 453 1/2
  • Technical buying with close over 4.50 on Thursday.
  • Fucus on Argentina weather staying overall drier keeping market supported
  • Export sale announce of 149,572 MT to Unknown for 2020-21 Marketing year brings in buyer support
  • Corn market hold strong despite weakness in both soybean and wheat markets today is encouraging
  • Demand, weather, & lack of farmer selling continue to bolster prices


  • Jan down 9 1/4 to 1254 and March down 8 3/4 to 1256
  • Progress on Argentina port strike bringing some selling pressure into the soybean market
  • Front month futures and bull spreads developing possible reversal signals on chart, could brin additional selling pressure
  • Soybean market is over-bought and due for a correction
  • Except for northern Brazil – rains continue to support crops favorably
  • Tight overall supplies support
  • Reported export sales this morning of 233,700MT of soybeans for 2020-21, 125,200 for 2021-22 and 33,000 MT of soybean oil to unknown destinations supporting the market
  • China continues to need soybeans – strong demand expected into 2021


  • Mar down 16 1/4  to 610 3/4, KCW March down 15 to 574, and MWSW down 9 3/4 to 573
  • Possible resolution on Argentina port strike bringing selling pressure into the wheat market
  • Technical selling in over-bought market pressuring as prices are challenging support
  • U.S. HRW wheat productions areas will get a little snow/rain next week
  • Russia wheat exports lowered to 36.3 MMT for 40.8 MMT bullish for the market
  • Weak dollar trend & hopes for better demand provides underlying support


  • Feb LC up 1.075 to 116.050, April LC up .675 to 119.650
  • Positive chart movement but demand still a concern
  • Key technical level over top of February at 116.000, Price gap on chart at 119.475 could be possible target
  • Cash market finished higher last week at $110 for most.  Anticipating firmer cash again this week
  • December cattle futures expire on 12/31
  • Cash market strength and wholesale beef values will be key to maintain strength


  • February Hogs down .950 to 66.00 & Feb Pork Cutout down .275 to 76.275
  • Lack of bullish news in reports sparked selling this morning
  • Waiting for next week when market participants return for indication on price direction
  • Large slaughter pace and weak cash pressure the markets
  • Cash lean index @ 61.62 down .42, Feb hogs at a 4.40 premium to the index to pressure futures
  • Pork carcass cutout index down .93 to 70.95, showing the weak trend in product prices


John Heinberg

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