TFM Midday Update 12-28-20

CORN

March up 1 1/2 to 452 1/2 and May up 1 3/4 to 453 1/2
Technical buying with close over 4.50 on Thursday.
Fucus on Argentina weather staying overall drier keeping market supported
Export sale announce of 149,572 MT to Unknown for 2020-21 Marketing year brings in buyer support
Corn market hold strong despite weakness in both soybean and wheat markets today is encouraging
Demand, weather, & lack of farmer selling continue to bolster prices

Jan down 9 1/4 to 1254 and March down 8 3/4 to 1256
Progress on Argentina port strike bringing some selling pressure into the soybean market
Front month futures and bull spreads developing possible reversal signals on chart, could brin additional selling pressure
Soybean market is over-bought and due for a correction
Except for northern Brazil – rains continue to support crops favorably
Tight overall supplies support
Reported export sales this morning of 233,700MT of soybeans for 2020-21, 125,200 for 2021-22 and 33,000 MT of soybean oil to unknown destinations supporting the market
China continues to need soybeans – strong demand expected into 2021

Mar down 16 1/4 to 610 3/4, KCW March down 15 to 574, and MWSW down 9 3/4 to 573
Possible resolution on Argentina port strike bringing selling pressure into the wheat market
Technical selling in over-bought market pressuring as prices are challenging support
U.S. HRW wheat productions areas will get a little snow/rain next week
Russia wheat exports lowered to 36.3 MMT for 40.8 MMT bullish for the market
Weak dollar trend & hopes for better demand provides underlying support

Feb LC up 1.075 to 116.050, April LC up .675 to 119.650
Positive chart movement but demand still a concern
Key technical level over top of February at 116.000, Price gap on chart at 119.475 could be possible target
Cash market finished higher last week at $110 for most. Anticipating firmer cash again this week
December cattle futures expire on 12/31
Cash market strength and wholesale beef values will be key to maintain strength

February Hogs down .950 to 66.00 & Feb Pork Cutout down .275 to 76.275
Lack of bullish news in reports sparked selling this morning
Waiting for next week when market participants return for indication on price direction
Large slaughter pace and weak cash pressure the markets
Cash lean index @ 61.62 down .42, Feb hogs at a 4.40 premium to the index to pressure futures
Pork carcass cutout index down .93 to 70.95, showing the weak trend in product prices

John Heinberg