TFM Midday Update 12-29-20


  • March up 8 to 4.64-1/4 and May up 7-1/4 to 4.64-1/4
  • Technical buying with close over 4.50 on Monday.
  • Focus on Argentina weather staying overall drier keeping market supported
  • Demand, weather, & lack of farmer selling continue to bolster prices
  • Corn index closed at 4.42 on Monday – new 1 year high
  • Ethanol demand lower than last year
  • Moderate to heavy rain forecast for Argentina and Brazil, however still too dry in Argentina
  • Outside markets supportive – Dow Jones trading higher and US Dollar index lower


  • Jan up 20 to 12.75-1/4 and March up 18 to 12.75-1/4
  • Soybean market is overbought and due for a correction
  • Except for northern Brazil – rains continue to support crops favorably, Argentina remains dry
  • Tight overall supplies support
  • China continues to need soybeans – strong demand expected into 2021
  • USA is only significant source of soybeans currently
  • Trend in March soybeans remains persistently up
  • Soybean index closed at 12.12 Monday – down from 6-year high
  • Weaker US dollar supportive


  • Mar CHI up 7 to 6.21-1/4, KC Mar up 8-3/4 to 5.85-3/4, and MPLS up 5 to 5.81-3/4
  • U.S. HRW wheat productions areas will get a little snow/rain next week
  • Russia wheat exports lowered to 36.3 MMT for 40.8 MMT bullish for the market
  • Weak dollar trend & hopes for better demand provides underlying support
  • KC wheat prices benefitting from higher corn and soybean prices
  • Support from concerns of drought in the USA
  • Moderate to heavy precipitation expected in southern Plains – limited benefit to drought areas
  • US wheat exports down 2% from last year


  • Feb LC up 0.200 to 115.975, Apr LC up 0.250 to 119.775
  • Positive chart movement but demand still a concern
  • Key technical level over top of February at 116.000, Price gap on chart at 119.475 could be possible target
  • Cash market finished higher last week at $110 for most.  Anticipating firmer cash again this week
  • December cattle futures expire on 12/31
  • Cash market strength and wholesale beef values will be key to maintain strength
  • Cattle owners raised asking prices across the plains from $112 to $113


  • Feb Hogs up 0.425 to 66.925 & Feb Pork Cutout up 0.450 to 76.550
  • Waiting for next week when market participants return for indication on price direction
  • Large slaughter pace and weak cash pressure the markets
  • Cash lean index @ 60.60 down 1.02, Feb hogs at a 66.50 is $6 above the index, which could pressure futures
  • Good weekend for pork sales
  • Winter weather is supportive


John Heinberg

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates