TFM Midday Update 12-29-2021

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours. Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 2:00 CT; there will be no Top Farmer Intelligence report.

CORN

  • Mar corn up 5 @ 6.10
  • Corn posted a bearish key reversal yesterday after reaching 6-month highs
  • Corn may have reached levels that caused long liquidation and month/year-end profit-taking
  • Some analysts are reducing South American corn production by 4-5 mmt
  • Over the next week, rains are forecasted for some parts of Brazil, but Rio Grande do Sul remains dry
  • Ethanol production has averaged 1.067 million barrels per day over the last six weeks

SOYBEANS

  • Jan soybeans down 2 @ 13.57
  • Like corn, soybeans may be experiencing month/year-end profit-taking
  • Domestic soybean basis to processers continues to be strong due to solid demand
  • China continues to be absent from the US soybean market, offering resistance
  • Some analysts reduced South American soybean production estimates below USDA levels
  • Soybean stochastics are showing a sell signal while remaining in the overbought territory

WHEAT

  • Mar wheat up 2 @ 7.86, Mar KC up 2 @ 8.24, Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 10.04
  • Talk of Russia selling wheat to China and maybe Algeria
  • Egypt is tendering for wheat – French prices are currently the cheapest
  • Russia has more snow in the forecast
  • Some of the liquidation in wheat may have been due to improved Russian conditions
  • Russia’s wheat export tax is currently $94.90 per metric ton

CATTLE

  • Feb LC up 1.450 @ 140.850 & Mar FC up 2.600 @ 167.825
  • Packers raised bids yesterday to obtain cattle with higher cash in the north
  • The weakening of corn prices was supportive to feeder cattle
  • The front months gapped higher to open the session
  • Last trading day for Dec live cattle is Friday
  • Choice cuts up 0.19 and select up 0.91
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/28: up 0.42 @ 159.56

HOGS

  • Feb hogs up 1.300 @ 83.925 & Feb pork cutout up 1.275 @ 93.925
  • May hogs gapped higher to open the session
  • There is concern regarding the spread of the omicron virus and how it will affect the supply chain and slaughter pace
  • Strong cash and cutouts are providing support
  • June futures closed at a new high – may indicate long term bullish potential
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 2.20
  • Hog slaughter projected at 480K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/29: up 0.66 @ 71.82

Author

Brandon Doherty

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

Subscribe
back to TFM Market Updates
Categories