TFM Midday Update 12-29-2023

CORN

Corn is trading near unchanged across the board on very light holiday trade that has continued through the week. At this point, March corn is set to post a slight gain for the week.
Export sales for corn were solid at 48.9 mb for 23/24 and 0.4 mb for 24/25. This was up 23% from the previous week, but down 12% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments for last week were 50.4 mb and were above the 45.7 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Columbia, and Japan.
Second crop corn usually begins planting in Brazil between January and February and while there are still some concerns regarding soil moisture, the forecast has improved.

Soybeans are trading lower today, dragged down by lower prices in both soybean meal and oil. Improved weather in Brazil has been a bearish factor this week.
Export sales for soybeans were on the soft side at 36.2 mb for 23/24, which was down 51% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments of 44.7 mb were well above the 26.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Mexico.
Many analysts are expecting Brazilian production to be closer to 155 mmt, compared to the USDA’s last guess of 161 mmt, but Argentina’s production is estimated higher with only 3% of the crop rated poorly.

Wheat began the day higher, but has faded with Chicago and Minneapolis lower and KC posting only slight gains. March Chicago wheat is on track for around a 10-cent gain on the week.
Export sales for wheat were poor as expected, with the USDA reporting an increase of just 10.2 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and 1.5 mb for 24/25. This was down 14% from the previous week and 60% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments came in at 12.6 mb last week, which was below the 16.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Japan, Thailand, and South Korea.
Demand fell to extremely low levels for US wheat exports this year, and as a result, cash prices of KC wheat are on track for a 27% loss for the year.

Brandon Doherty