TFM Midday Update 12-31-20


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours. Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 2:00 CT; There will be no 4:30 update.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed.


  • March up 4-3/4 to 4.79-1/4 and May up 4-1/2 to 4.78-3/4
  • Argentina (world’s #3 corn supplier) will suspend sales of corn for export until Feb 28th – sign of tightening global food supplies during pandemic
  • Focus on Argentina weather staying overall drier keeping market supported
  • September through December moisture in Argentina has been well below average
  • Demand, weather, & lack of farmer selling continue to bolster prices
  • Ethanol demand lower than last year, and ethanol stocks are building
  • Outside markets supportive – Dow Jones trading higher and U.S. Dollar Index lower
  • Corn has closed higher for 14 consecutive days
  • Possible loss of 10-12 mmt of South American corn production could shift even more demand to the US
  • Weekly Export Sales: 38 mm, at high end of expectations and supportive


  • Jan up 16-3/4 to 13.20-1/2 and March up 14 to 13.14-1/2
  • Soybean rally continued overnight, leading to new contract highs
  • Soybean market is overbought and due for a correction
  • Except for northern Brazil – rains continue to support crops favorably, Argentina remains dry
  • Tight overall supplies support, and prices are trying to ration demand
  • U.S. is only significant source of soybeans currently, and talk China was looking for February delivery soybeans supported prices yesterday
  • Trend in March soybeans remains persistently up
  • Argentina port workers strike ended on 20th day – shipments scheduled for December hope to be completed by January
  • Argentina’s extended forecast shows returning heat and dryness
  • Weekly Export sales: 25.6 mb at high end of expectations and supportive


  • Mar CHI down 5 to 6.35-3/4, KC Mar down 5-1/4 to 5.96, and MPLS down 3 to 5.93-1/4
  • U.S. HRW wheat productions areas will get a little snow/rain next week
  • Russia wheat exports lowered to 36.3 MMT for 40.8 MMT bullish for the market
  • Weak dollar trend, pushing to nearby lows today, brings hopes for better demand provides underlying support
  • KC wheat prices benefitting from higher corn and soybean prices
  • Moderate to heavy precipitation expected in southern Plains – limited benefit to drought areas
  • U.S. wheat exports down 2% from last year
  • Bullish influence from corn help wheat prices stay supported this winter
  • Wheat market is overbought and may be due for a correction
  • Underlying support coming from abnormally dry conditions in the US and Russia


  • Feb LC up 0.125 to 114.575, Apr LC up 0.150 to 118.750
  • Positive chart movement but demand still a concern
  • Key technical level over top of February at 116.000, Price gap on chart at 119.475 could be possible target
  • December cattle futures expire today.
  • Cash market strength and wholesale beef values will be key to maintain strength
  • Cash cattle markets started trading Wed with live trade developing at $111-112 per cwt – $1-2 higher than last week.  Asking prices are $112-113
  • Expectation that packers will be aggressive buyers in order to fill plant needs for the first two weeks of January should support cash trade after the new year
  • Strong pressure has developed in futures trade during the week based on increased grain and feed prices
  • Overall trade volume reported as generally light
  • Projected slaughter for Thursday is 115,000 head


  • Feb Hogs up 2.475 to 70.075 & Feb Pork Cutout up 2.050 to 78.625
  • Strong export numbers helping support hog prices on Thursday
  • Large slaughter pace and weak cash pressure the markets
  • Winter weather is supportive
  • Limited but positive support in pork cutout values has led to increased underlying support
  • Expectation that moderate to strong export demand will redevelop over the next couple weeks, bolstering pork demand and prices, weekly export sales tomorrow should support
  • Projected slaughter for Thursday is 425,000 head
  • Saturday runs expected at 338,000 head


John Heinberg

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