TFM Midday Update 2-10-2023

CORN

Mar corn up 7 @ 6.77
Corn is trading higher after a solid export sales report, as well as a jump in crude as Russia has said that they would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels a day
Export sales were about 46 million bushels, which were down 17 mb from the prior week, and total commitments are down 41% from last year
The Buenos Aries Grain exchange reported an improvement in the good to excellent ratings to 20% with 34% of the crop rated poor to very poor, improvements after recent rains
Brazil’s corn exports were increased by 3 mmt to 50 mmt, and China is now Brazil’s main customer for both corn and beans

Mar soybeans up 10 @ 15.30
Soybeans are higher, but have backed off their highs from this morning and are following bean oil which is being led by higher crude
The Buenos Aires Grain exchange increased their good to excellent rating for beans to 13% from 12% last week, but poor to very poor rose 2% to 48% of the crop
The Argentinian exchange also lowered their production estimates to 38 mmt from 41 mmt which is far below USDA expectations
The USDA reported an increase of just 16.9 mb of export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 6.8 mb for 23/24, but shipments were good at 67.2 mb

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Mar Chi wheat up 27 @ 7.84, Mar KC up 29 @ 9.08, & Mar MNPLS up 11 @ 9.28
Wheat is leading the grain market today with big gains of nearly 4% in the March contract as Russia has started fresh and intensified attacks on Ukraine
The prime minister of Moldova has announced that the government is resigning after Russia shot rockets above the country violating NATO rules
Export sales for wheat were poor at just 4.8 mb for 22/23 and 0.7 mb for 23/24 with shipments at 19.8 mb
Russia continues to dominate exports selling 400,000 mt to Algeria

Apr LC up 0.250 @ 163.875 & Mar FC down 0.375 @ 186.450
Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are lower on a rally in the corn market while higher boxed beef is offering some support
Cash will almost certainly be higher this week with trade occurring yesterday in the North at 254, 4 dollars better than last week
Asking prices in the South are between 161 and 162 while remaining asking prices in the North are around 255 or higher
Choice cuts up 2.09 and select up 0.85
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/9: up 0.30 @ 182.53

Apr hogs up 0.050 @ 83.325 & Apr pork cutout down 0.200 @ 90.000
- Hogs are slightly higher today after cash slipped but the cutouts moved higher again by 1.10 but trade has seemed to be following cash lately
- Weekly export sales were good at 28,800 mt of pork sold with China as the third largest buyer
- Packers continue to keep a fast slaughter pace flooding the market with pork with demand that has not been able to keep up
- National Direct Afternoon report fell by 0.25
- Hog slaughter projected at 483K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 2/10: up 0.05 @ 73.8

Amanda Brill