TFM Midday Update 2-10-21

CORN

  • March down 14 @ 5.42 & Dec down 7 @ 4.48
  • A close monitoring of rain distribution in Argentina still warranted – some areas still too dry
  • Corn stock outlook yesterday from USDA higher than expected, sparked sell-off in futures
  • Argentine truckers ended a 20-day strike that had blocked access to ports in Buenos Aires
  • Export sales – 132K mt of corn for delivery unknown – cancelled shipment
  • Ethanol production for last wk 937K barrels per day – down 9.29% from last yr

SOYBEANS

  • March down 34 @ 13.67 & Nov down 21 @ 11.69
  • Conditions in Brazil will continue to be favorable
  • US farmers expected to plant record or near record soybean crop for 2021-22
  • Malaysian palm oil inventories rise more than expected in Jan. as exports slump
  • Beans following corn, after market disappointed in USDA report yesterday
  • Ending stocks at 120 mb – lowest US number since 2014
  • All eyes – inclusive of USDA’s waiting to see S. American crop harvest & production numbers

WHEAT

  • March down 17 @ 6.32, Mar KC down 17 @ 6.15, Mar MNPLS down 9 @ 6.28
  • US delivered 1.8 mt of wheat in Jan – 4% above the 5 year average Jan exports
  • Russia exported 3 mt of wheat in Jan. down 13% from a month ago
  • USDA was actually slightly bullish yesterday but wheat continues to trend with corn
  • Bitter cold headed for plains & Midwest – key growing areas should be protected by snow coverage
  • Paris milling futures trend lower for 10th day in a row

CATTLE

  • April LC down 1.05 @ 122.77 & March FC down .32 @ 138.32
  • Premium to cash & overbought – key reversal may spark selling
  • After yesterday’s rally – profit taking pushing market lower today
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 117K head
  • Cash trade last seen at 114 & @ 135.63 up .16 for 2/8 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -1630 contracts for Feb LC & O/I: -1106 contracts for March FC

HOGS

  • April hogs up .105 @ 90.82  & April Pork Cutout up 1.02 @ 88.15
  • May need set-back with overbought conditions & China demand uncertain
  • Chinese Yuan now 6.43 to the USD – gives US pork prices more room to rise on export market
  • Last trading date for Feb hogs & pork cutout Friday, 2/12
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 496K head
  • Cash lean index @ 71.07 up .67 for 2/8

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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