TFM Midday Update 2-11-2025

CORN

Corn remains firm at midday on shrinking US ending stocks estimates in today’s WASDE report.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report see US ending stocks slightly lower to 1,526 mb compared to 1,540 mb last month. World ending stocks for corn range from unchanged to slightly higher.
Export demand continues to be a strong point for the US with Mexico buying 3650,000 mt of US corn yesterday.
AgRural reported Brazil’s center-south safrina corn planting is 20% complete while harvest for the first crop is just 18% done.

Soybean prices continue to trend higher at midday ahead of the WASDE report.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report expect a decline of 3-6 mb for US ending stocks. World ending stocks estimates are expected to be either left unchanged or a slight bump higher from last month.
AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean harvest is 15% done, up 9% from last week, but down 8% from the same week a year ago.
Scattered rainfall is expected in Brazil for the next 10 days before warmer and drier weather moves back in during the 11–15-day outlook. The scattered rainfall is not expected to have a dramatic effect on soybean harvest.

All three wheat contracts remain higher at midday on expected snowfall this week in the Plains states which will limit winterkill concerns.
Today’s WASDE report is widely expected to not have any major changes to the wheat balance sheet.
IKAR has lowered their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 2 mmt to 82 mmt.
The Russian Agriculture Ministry has distributed their 2025 wheat export quota among 219 companies. The quota’s total size is 10.60 mmt and will remain in effect from February 15-June 30.

Tanner Wilson