TFM Midday Update 2-12-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday following the February WASDE report and sharp fall in prices Tuesday.
The USDA has confirmed the export sale of 130,320 tons of corn, slated for delivery to unspecified destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The USDA has reduced its forecast for Argentina’s corn crop by 1 mmt, now projecting a total of 50 mmt. This adjustment comes as a result of diminished yield prospects due to ongoing heat and dryness in the region.
With favorable weather conditions, Brazil’s soybean harvest is expected to continue into the weekend, which is likely to accelerate the seeding of the safrinha corn crop, which remains behind schedule.

Soybean prices remain lower at midday, continuing to face pressure after the USDA left its forecast for Brazil’s crop unchanged at 169 mmt, contrary to expectations for a 0.4% increase. Soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are all trading lower at midday.
The USDA has confirmed U.S. export sales of 120,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 marketing year.
Central Brazil is expected to experience only scattered showers mixed with sunshine through the upcoming weekend, which will allow for the continued progress of the soybean harvest.
Rainfall in Argentina has provided much-needed relief to crops, with more rain forecasted through the weekend. The rainfall from last week, along with the expected precipitation, is proving beneficial for soybeans at a critical development stage.

Wheat trades mixed at midday following a very neutral February WASDE report in respect to wheat.
Weather in Ukraine and Russia remains dry, with colder temperatures expected to return to Russia next week, putting additional stress on crops. Meanwhile, India continues to experience warm and dry conditions, further stressing the crop.
Wheat futures remain impacted by the extreme cold snap in the U.S. Plains and the Black Sea region, raising concerns about potential winterkill. Cold temperatures are expected to persist in the Black Sea region into mid-February, which could leave Russia’s and Ukraine’s wheat crops vulnerable to frost following a relatively mild winter so far.
USDA dropped the global wheat stockpiles at the close of 24/25 more than expected, by trimming its estimate by 0.5% to 257.56 mmt, this is a nine-year low.

Lauren VandenLangenberg