TFM Midday Update 2-13-2026

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 16, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN

Corn futures shift mixed to mostly lower at midday, pressured by weakness in the wheat market. March futures are up to 4.31 ¼, while May futures are lower at 4.41½.
Reports of moldy corn in northern China are beginning to surface following heavy rains during harvest several months ago. At the same time, corn prices in China have been rising while U.S. prices remain steady, increasing the likelihood that China may turn to the United States for corn imports.
The Climate Prediction Center reports a 60% chance that La Niña will weaken to ENSO-neutral conditions between February and April, along with a 60% chance that El Niño could develop this summer. A transition out of La Niña would likely bring increased rainfall to Argentina and drier conditions across northern Brazil.
Crop conditions in Argentina declined by 1% last week to 43% rated good to excellent; however, that is still well above the 26% reported at this time last year.

Soybeans continue to decline in midday trade across the entire soy complex as uncertainty grows regarding potential Chinese purchases. March soybeans are lower at 11.30.
Traders remain cautious about the potential for Chinese purchases, as the U.S. would likely need to remove the 10% tariff on soybean exports to China to be competitive. Currently, U.S. soybeans are at a significant price disadvantage compared to Brazil, and China typically sources from the lowest-cost supplier.
Heavy rains in central Brazil are expected to ease next week, which should allow harvest to resume, along with improved conditions in eastern Argentina. However, roughly one-third of the crop still needs additional moisture to prevent worsening stress.
China’s Lunar New Year holiday week has begun, and demand may remain limited until traders return to their desks the following week.

Wheat continues to weaken in midday trade following the release of several bearish news items this morning. March Chicago wheat is down to 5.48¼, while March Kansas City wheat is also lower at 5.43½.
India announced this morning that it will allow 2.5 million tons of wheat exports for the first time in four years.
IKAR raised its 2026 Russian wheat crop estimate to 91 million tons, up from a previous projection of 88 million tons.
Global supply prospects continue to improve, as the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia pegged regional wheat production at the second-highest level on record. Meanwhile, French soft red winter wheat conditions are rated 91% good to excellent, the highest level in three years.

Lauren VandenLangenberg