TFM Midday Update 2-14-2023


  • Mar corn UNCH @ 6.85
  • This week’s data showed corn inspections at 20.1 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 514 mb
  • A crop scout is estimating the Argentina corn crop at 43 mmt (vs the USDA at 47)
  • US corn export shipments are down 35% from a year ago
  • Argentina has a couple chances for rain this week, but the forecast remains mostly dry for the next 2 weeks
  • Mexico reportedly intends to still ban GMO corn for food, but may allow for animal and industrial use


  • Mar soybeans up 1 @ 15.44
  • This week’s data showed soybean inspections at 57.1 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 1,453 mb
  • Soybeans and meal are running up against resistance and by some metrics may be considered overbought
  • A crop scout is estimating the Argentina soybean crop at 36 mmt (vs the USDA at 41)
  • Brazil looks like it could turn dry for a couple of days which will help the bean harvest
  • Wednesday’s NOPA crush for January is estimated to be 181.66 mb (compared to 177 mb in December)

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  • Mar Chi wheat up 2 @ 7.94, Mar KC up 6 @ 9.18, & Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.35
  • This week’s data showed wheat inspections at 17.4 mb, brining total 22/23 inspections to 525 mb
  • There is talk that Russia may not extend the Ukraine export corridor on March 19th unless sanctions against them are lifted
  • If KC wheat closes higher today, it will be the 13th higher close in the past 16 days
  • Ukraine says that Russia is still intentionally slowing inspections and delaying shipments of grain


  • Apr LC down 0.875 @ 164.225 & Mar FC down 0.950 @ 186.250
  • February and April live cattle futures made new highs
  • The gap higher in February is technically bullish – though the gap may soon be filled
  • Boxed beef is finding support
  • Choice cuts up 0.29 and select up 1.92
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/13: up 0.24 @ 183.33


  • Apr hogs up 0.350 @ 86.700 & Apr pork cutout up 0.425 @ 93.050
  • February hog futures expire today and April will become the front month
  • April still holds a large premium to the index
  • African Swine Fever was found on a farm in Hong Kong
  • Packers are expected to be active today
  • Hog slaughter projected at 488K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/14: up 0.63 @ 74.64


Brandon Doherty

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