TFM Midday Update 2-14-2023

CORN

Mar corn UNCH @ 6.85
This week’s data showed corn inspections at 20.1 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 514 mb
A crop scout is estimating the Argentina corn crop at 43 mmt (vs the USDA at 47)
US corn export shipments are down 35% from a year ago
Argentina has a couple chances for rain this week, but the forecast remains mostly dry for the next 2 weeks
Mexico reportedly intends to still ban GMO corn for food, but may allow for animal and industrial use

Mar soybeans up 1 @ 15.44
This week’s data showed soybean inspections at 57.1 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 1,453 mb
Soybeans and meal are running up against resistance and by some metrics may be considered overbought
A crop scout is estimating the Argentina soybean crop at 36 mmt (vs the USDA at 41)
Brazil looks like it could turn dry for a couple of days which will help the bean harvest
Wednesday’s NOPA crush for January is estimated to be 181.66 mb (compared to 177 mb in December)

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Mar Chi wheat up 2 @ 7.94, Mar KC up 6 @ 9.18, & Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.35
This week’s data showed wheat inspections at 17.4 mb, brining total 22/23 inspections to 525 mb
There is talk that Russia may not extend the Ukraine export corridor on March 19^th unless sanctions against them are lifted
If KC wheat closes higher today, it will be the 13^th higher close in the past 16 days
Ukraine says that Russia is still intentionally slowing inspections and delaying shipments of grain

Apr LC down 0.875 @ 164.225 & Mar FC down 0.950 @ 186.250
February and April live cattle futures made new highs
The gap higher in February is technically bullish – though the gap may soon be filled
Boxed beef is finding support
Choice cuts up 0.29 and select up 1.92
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/13: up 0.24 @ 183.33

Brandon Doherty