CORN
- Mar corn up 7 @ 6.45
- The Russian Navy may be blockading ports in Ukraine
- Russia talked about troops being pulled out of Belarus but US intelligence says there is actually a buildup of troops
- USDA estimates Ukraine shipping 33.5 mmt of corn this marketing year – most to Europe but 11.8 mmt to China
- Argentina will remain mostly dry but there is some chance for rain in southern Brazil soon
SOYBEANS
- Mar soybeans up 25 @ 15.76
- Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year
- The Brazilian Real rallied strongly yesterday which may discourage farmer selling there
- China needs to purchase about 8 mmt of soybeans per month to meet the USDA’s goal of 97 mmt
- Northern Brazil’s harvest continues to be delayed due to wet conditions
- January NOPA crush was pegged at 182.216 mb vs expectations of 186.7 mb (and vs 184.7 mb last year)
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WHEAT
- Mar wheat up 3 @ 7.83, Mar KC up 2 @ 8.08, Mar MNPLS down 2 @ 9.51
- Wheat is in a broad trading range that is being affected by Russia / Ukraine, US southern plains weather, and export demand
- A big storm front is expected to move across the plains and midwest – some HRW areas may benefit but they will still need more moisture
- The Russia / Ukraine situation remains a big unknown and that may make traders nervous
- Traders may even up positions ahead of a long weekend (grains are closed Monday for President’s Day)
CATTLE
- Apr LC up 0.275 @ 147.175 & Mar FC down 0.800 @ 167.925
- Traders feel cash will be steady this week
- Slaughter pace is strong and packers need to keep up with demand
- Boxed beef continues to show weakness
- Choice cuts down 3.59 and select down 0.93
- Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/15: down 0.45 @ 162.71
HOGS
- Apr hogs up 1.750 @ 105.900 & Apr pork cutout up 1.300 @ 112.250
- Slaughter pace is increasing and packers need supplies to keep up
- The forecasted winter storm may impede movement of hogs
- Higher cash yesterday provided support to futures
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 2.90
- Hog slaughter projected at 477K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 2/16: up 1.33 @ 91.84
Author
Brandon Doherty