TFM Midday Update 2-18-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday, supported by a tighter global supply outlook.
The corn market, previously focused on the improving weather conditions in South America, is now shifting its attention to the strong demand for U.S. corn. This shift is driven by the potential influence of President Trump in persuading global buyers to ‘Buy American.’ Additionally, the recent decline in the U.S. dollar has sparked a surge in demand for U.S. corn exports.
AgRural reports that safrinha corn planting is 36% complete, compared to 59% at this time last year, due to a delayed soybean harvest caused by wet weather. This delay is leaving producers scrambling to get the corn planted within the ideal climate window.
Recent strength in the corn markets suggests that traders believe tariffs on Mexico can be avoided by March 1st and that U.S. exports will not be significantly impacted.

Soybeans are trending higher at midday, with the entire soy complex gaining support from declining U.S. exports and improved weather conditions in South America.
Much-needed rains fell across Argentina over the weekend, with the 6-10 day forecast indicating the possibility of additional rainfall. This has brought much-needed relief to the soybean crop in the region.
Brazil’s weather looks to be mostly dry until late in next week. AgRural says Brazil’s soybean harvest is 23% complete compared to 32% a year ago. IMEA reports the Mato Gasso harvest is 50% done.
With soybean exports declining and weather conditions improving in South America, the potential for significant price increases in soybeans is likely to be limited.

Wheat is trading higher at midday, supported by the recent decline in the U.S. dollar and the strengthening of global grain prices.
Polar temperatures have moved into the U.S. Plains, but snow from recent and upcoming storms is expected to insulate the crops, preventing further winterkill damage—except in South Dakota, where snow cover is lacking. The weather in the Plains is forecasted to dramatically warm up after this week.
Russia is expecting another cold snap this week, but upcoming storms are expected to bring snow that will help insulate the crops. According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices have risen by $2 this week, reaching $247 per ton. Russian wheat exports have increased for the fourth consecutive week.

Lauren VandenLangenberg