TFM Midday Update 2-20-2024

CORN

Corn is trading near the lower end of its trading range and off its earlier morning highs. Funds currently hold their largest net short position in four years, and it is likely very close to the record large short position.
This morning, the USDA reported that 155,000 metric tons of corn were sold to Japan for the 24/25 marketing season. This along with China being back from holiday could be supportive to exports.
Central Brazil and Argentina received a considerable amount of rain over the weekend with more expected this week. A prominent crop scout has pegged Brazil’s production at 125.9 mmt which compares to the USDA’s 124 mmt.

Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed off their highs this morning along with corn. Soybeans also gapped higher on the open after the long weekend with support from China’s announcement to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
This morning, the USDA reported a sale of 228,000 metric tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 23/24 marketing period.
In Brazil, soybean premiums improved last week despite the ongoing harvest. Farmers were unwilling to sell at the low prices causing premiums to improve.

Wheat is trading mostly higher today and so far, is the star of the grain complex with the largest gains after it bounced off its lows at 555 ¼ for the March contract.
In France, the wheat crop conditions have been deteriorating and now only 68% of the crop is rated good to excellent. Those are the worst ratings since 2020 and compare to last year’s rating of 93% at this time.
Australia is currently forecast to be hit by a third tropical cyclone within two months with a system forming off the northern coast and could make landfall near Queensland. This could be detrimental to the wheat crop there.

Amanda Brill