TFM Midday Update 2-21-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today and has wiped out all of yesterday’s gains to make new contract lows in both the March and May contracts. An improvement in South American weather and cheaper Ukrainian corn offers have put pressure on futures.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now estimated to be over 45% planted which compares to 33% at this time last year, but some analysts believe that 25% to 30% of the crop was planted outside the ideal window which could result in a smaller crop than the USDA is forecasting.
The current administration has approved a request by governors in the Midwest to allow year-round sales of gasoline with 15% ethanol beginning in 2025.

Soybeans are trading lower after yesterday’s higher close and have erased all of those gains and then some as a large South American crop looms along with an expected increase in planted soybean acres in the US.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today with March bean oil trading near its contract lows. Higher crude oil prices have not been supportive as palm oil has dragged soybean oil down with it.
Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated to be over 30% harvested, and estimates for total production are still being lowered. Agroconsult sees production at 152.2 mmt which is a reduction of 1.6 mmt, and another crop scout is estimating production at 145 mmt, far below the USDA’s last estimate of 156 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but yesterday’s gains of over 20 cents have kept prices well off their recent lows. Export sales weren’t strong enough to necessarily warrant that rally, and it was likely a rebound from oversold conditions.
Russian consultancy firm, IKAR, has reported that Russian FOB values for 12.5% protein hard wheat have fallen another $5 per metric ton to $218 this week which further pressures US wheat prices.
Russia’s agricultural minister has reported that Moscow has now shipped 200,000 tonnes of free grain to six African countries fulfilling the countries pledge that was made last year by Putin.

Amanda Brill