TFM Midday Update 2-23-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday and is on track for the third consecutively lower close with the March contract currently down 15 cents on the week. Selling pressure by the non-commercials continues to push prices lower as they near a new record short position.
For the week ending February 15, the USDA reported an increase of 32.3 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was at the lower end of expectations and puts year to date commitments up 29% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 40.3 mb were below the 45.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Exports would be significantly lower without the business from Mexico.

Soybeans are trading lower near midday with significantly larger losses in the front months than in November. March soybeans have officially taken out their low from last year and have made a new all-time contract low. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
The USDA has reported an increase of only 2.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, which was way below expectations and a marketing year low. There were net cancellations by China which could become a theme with Brazilian soybean so much cheaper than the US. Year to date commitments are now 20% below that of last year.
Export shipments for last week of 44.0 mb were significantly higher than 19.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.720 bb. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.

All three US wheat futures classes are trading in negative territory this morning, alongside a mixed trade in Matif wheat. The US Dollar Index is consolidating around the 104 level, and spillover pressure from lower corn and soybeans is not helping the situation.
The USDA reported an increase of 8.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.7 mb of 24/25. Shipments last week at 13.7 mb were under the pace needed of 17.7 mb per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 725 mb of exports in 23/24.
Japan is said to have purchased a total of 115,000 mt of wheat – it was sourced from Canada, Australia, and the US. South Korea is also said to be tendering for 136,000 mt of wheat, with hopes that the US gains some of that business.
The ag minister of France said that their wheat is rated at 69% good to excellent, versus 95% GTE at this time last year. Wet weather during planting has already reduced the sowing of their crop, and weather is also blamed as the reason for the decline in condition compared with a year ago.

Brandon Doherty