TFM Midday Update 2-26-2025

CORN

Corn prices are trading lower at midday, still receiving pressure from increased spring planting estimates and favorable rain conditions in South America.
As the spring planting season approaches, the production outlook for the United States is becoming more optimistic. The USDA is scheduled to release its spring planting estimates on Thursday morning, with expectations pointing to a higher corn acreage forecast.
Heavy rainfall across much of Argentina has provided much-needed relief to the country’s corn crops. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, over 3.9 inches of rain have already fallen, with more precipitation expected in the coming days.
The safrinha corn planting in Argentina has hit 65%, while the first crop corn harvest in Brazil’s Parana state has reached 42% complete.

Soybeans are trending lower at midday, pressured by ongoing rains in Argentina and the continued Brazil harvest. The entire soy complex is seeing losses at midday.
Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazil soybean estimate by 1 mt, now slightly above the USDA’s forecast at 169 mt, citing dry conditions in the southern growing regions. The estimate for Argentina remains unchanged at 48 mt.
The estimated soybean harvest in Paraná is 40% complete and continues to make progress as favorable weather conditions persist.
U.S. soybean plantings are expected to decrease by 3.1% in 2025 compared to 2024, but yields are projected to average 52.1 bpa, up from 50.7 bpa in 2024.

Wheat prices are trending lower at midday across all three classes as concerns over cold weather damage to U.S. and Russian crops ease.
U.S. wheat plantings are expected to total 46.7 million acres, up from 46.1 million acres in 2024/25. However, the yield is projected to decrease, with estimates at 50.3 bpa, down from 51.2 bpa in 2024.
Consultant Sovecon has revised its Russian wheat export estimate for the 2024/25 year down to 42.2 mmt, from 42.8 mmt.
LSEG has left its Ukraine winter wheat production estimate unchanged at 20.3 million metric tons (MT), noting that a thin layer of snow has shielded the crop from recent cold snaps.

Lauren VandenLangenberg