TFM Midday Update 2-28-2023


  • May corn down 5 @ 6.38
  • Yesterday March corn hit a 12-week low and December hit a 7 month low
  • One analyst dropped their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mmt (to 121 mmt) based on late planting of the second crop
  • Some are estimating Ukraine’s 2023 planted corn acres may be down as much as 50%
  • About 20% of the Mato Grosso (Brazil) corn crop could be planted outside the ideal time window


  • May soybeans down 28 @ 14.85
  • A 24-hour trucker / farmer strike in Brazil may slow movement to the ports
  • Brazil soybean harvest is about 30-35% done (vs about 40-45% average)
  • Brazil meal prices for export are still cheaper than the US
  • Lower palm oil has pressured soybean oil
  • Argentina’s forecast remains mostly dry


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  • May Chi wheat down 2 @ 7.08May KC up 1 @ 8.18, & May MNPLS up 1 @ 8.69
  • May Chi wheat hit the lowest level in over a year
  • 19% of the Kansas winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, with 51% poor to very poor
  • Technically wheat is at oversold levels
  • Turkey is said to have purchased 350,000 mt of wheat (in a tender likely to be sourced from Russia)


  • Apr LC up 0.025 @ 165.000 & Apr FC up 0.770 @ 195.000
  • Cattle expected to trade higher this week with tight supplies and good demand
  • Futures are at high levels which may limit upside movement
  • Packers purchased some cattle ahead last week, so they may be less aggressive this week
  • Boxed beef has been trending higher
  • Choice cuts up 1.06 and select up 2.17
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/27: down 0.53 @ 182.24


  • Apr hogs up 0.225 @ 84.950 Apr pork cutout down 0.500 @ 91.200
  • Hogs may experience technical selling after closing below support yesterday
  • Export and domestic demand may be improving as packers have been more aggressive
  • Charts may be forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders formation
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.34
  • Hog slaughter projected at 483K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/28: up 0.73 @ 78.22


Brandon Doherty

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