CORN
- May corn down 5 @ 6.38
- Yesterday March corn hit a 12-week low and December hit a 7 month low
- One analyst dropped their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mmt (to 121 mmt) based on late planting of the second crop
- Some are estimating Ukraine’s 2023 planted corn acres may be down as much as 50%
- About 20% of the Mato Grosso (Brazil) corn crop could be planted outside the ideal time window
SOYBEANS
- May soybeans down 28 @ 14.85
- A 24-hour trucker / farmer strike in Brazil may slow movement to the ports
- Brazil soybean harvest is about 30-35% done (vs about 40-45% average)
- Brazil meal prices for export are still cheaper than the US
- Lower palm oil has pressured soybean oil
- Argentina’s forecast remains mostly dry
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WHEAT
- May Chi wheat down 2 @ 7.08, May KC up 1 @ 8.18, & May MNPLS up 1 @ 8.69
- May Chi wheat hit the lowest level in over a year
- 19% of the Kansas winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, with 51% poor to very poor
- Technically wheat is at oversold levels
- Turkey is said to have purchased 350,000 mt of wheat (in a tender likely to be sourced from Russia)
CATTLE
- Apr LC up 0.025 @ 165.000 & Apr FC up 0.770 @ 195.000
- Cattle expected to trade higher this week with tight supplies and good demand
- Futures are at high levels which may limit upside movement
- Packers purchased some cattle ahead last week, so they may be less aggressive this week
- Boxed beef has been trending higher
- Choice cuts up 1.06 and select up 2.17
- Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/27: down 0.53 @ 182.24
HOGS
- Apr hogs up 0.225 @ 84.950 & Apr pork cutout down 0.500 @ 91.200
- Hogs may experience technical selling after closing below support yesterday
- Export and domestic demand may be improving as packers have been more aggressive
- Charts may be forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders formation
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.34
- Hog slaughter projected at 483K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 2/28: up 0.73 @ 78.22
Author
Brandon Doherty