TFM Midday Update 2-28-2025

CORN

At midday, corn prices dropped as rains in South America alleviated some of the drought stress on crops, coupled with the confirmation of the tariff start date.
The corn market remains volatile and under pressure after President Trump confirmed yesterday that tariffs will not be delayed and are set to take effect on March 4th. Traders, however, remain skeptical about the implementation date, as negotiations are ongoing through the weekend.
The Outlook Forum kept ethanol projections unchanged for the 2025/2026 season, while lowering exports by 50 million bushels. U.S. corn plantings are expected to increase by 3.8%, reaching 94 million acres in 2025, compared to 90.6 million acres in 2024.
Argentina’s corn harvest has started and is 5.4% complete. Crop conditions improved by 3% last week, with 21% of the corn now rated as good/excellent.

Soybeans turned lower at midday across the entire soy complex as the market remains under pressure from tariff concerns and expectations of a record crop in Brazil.
USDA confirms the sale of 20,000 tons of US soy oil for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 year.
Brazilian soybean prices are significantly lower than those in the U.S., with newly harvested beans now available. China continues to cancel previously purchased U.S. beans in favor of the cheaper South American supply.
Argentina’s soybean crop conditions rose 7% last week to 24% of the crop now good/excellent as weather conditions improve in the area.

Wheat trades lower at midday as global supply increases and export challenges are expected to persist.
Wheat exports are projected at 850 mb for the 2025/2026 marketing year, unchanged from the current year. The U.S. is expected to face competition from other wheat suppliers, including Russia. USDA’s Chief Economist noted that the U.S. is likely to continue experiencing export challenges in the 2025/2026 year.
Weather in the eastern Corn Belt over the next five days is expected to bring increased moisture, while the western plains will remain dry. Yesterday’s drought monitor continues to show dry conditions across much of the plains, which could stress the wheat crop.

Lauren VandenLangenberg