TFM Midday Update 2-6-2023


  • Mar corn down 3 @ 6.74
  • Corn is trading lower this morning thanks to a higher dollar, improved Argentinian corn ratings, and poor export sales commitments
  • The recent rains in Argentina did in fact improve their corn crop with the good to excellent rating rising to 12% from 7%
  • The US Dollar is moving sharply higher again which especially puts pressure on corn and wheat as US grains are already far more expensive that offerings from Ukraine and Russia
  • Export sales commitments for 22/23 are 43% less than a year ago as cheaper corn is being sold in Brazil and Ukraine


  • Mar soybeans down 11 @ 15.22
  • Soybeans are trading lower due to a sell off in bean meal, and bean oil is lower as well as crude slips and the dollar moves higher
  • Brazil’s harvest is now around 10% complete and estimates are pointing towards a record crop of around 5.62 billion bushels
  • About 478 million bushels of Brazilian beans are harvested at this point which is below the yearly average, but premiums are slipping giving Brazil the competitive edge for exports
  • The Chinese surveillance balloons that were shot down over the US have done nothing to improve relationships and will likely have a bearish effect on markets


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  • Mar Chi wheat down 6 @ 7.50Mar KC down 1 @ 8.74, & Mar MNPLS down 3 @ 9.18
  • Wheat is getting beat up the hardest by the higher dollar as US exports have already been a struggle as Russian and Ukraine are able to sell their wheat for much cheaper
  • Russia’s IKAR consultancy reduced their estimates for their crop from 87 mmt to 84 mmt due to weather issues
  • The US wheat belt has received plenty of rains lately, but drought conditions are still an issue from Nebraska to Kansas
  • US wheat stocks were 1.28 bb as of December 1 and are on track to finish the marketing year at the lowest levels in 15 years


  • Apr LC up 0.325 @ 164.450 & Mar FC up 1.075 @ 187.375
  • Both live and feeder cattle are trading higher today thanks to higher cash trade last week and lower corn prices
  • Feedlots held strong on Friday and refused steady cash with the majority of cash deals done at 250 in the North, 2 dollars higher that last week, and 159 in the South, 3 dollars better
  • Lower boxed beef may keep packers hesitant to bid up for cash again this week
  • Choice cuts down 0.36 and select down 2.05
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/3: up 0.55 @ 181.45


  • Apr hogs down 3.350 @ 83.125 & Apr pork cutout down 2.800 @ 90.750
  • Hogs are trading lower this morning with cash lower and a decline in the cutouts of 2.45
  • Slaughter pace has been the biggest bearish influence as packers are having little difficulty acquiring hogs and flooding the market with pork
  • Until cutouts bottom out and stabilize futures will have trouble working higher
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell by 0.26
  • Hog slaughter projected at 489K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/6: up 0.20 @ 73.05


Amanda Brill

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