TFM Midday Update 2-8-2023

CORN

Mar corn up 2 @ 6.76
Corn is trading slightly higher ahead of the WASDE report which may include an adjustment of lower exports
Exports have been very sluggish, but Brazil should now be nearly out of corn which would open the window for the US to export more
The USDA may also drop Argentina’s corn production to 45.5 million metric tons which would be down 3 mmt, still higher than most private analyst expectations
There were two new corn sales yesterday to both Japan and Mexico which totaled 12.2 mb with most for the 22/23 marketing year but 3.9 mb for the 23/24 year

Mar soybeans up 6 @ 15.22
Soybeans are working higher today with higher meal but lower bean oil despite crude that continues to work higher
Today’s WASDE will most likely make some adjustments to Argentina’s production, probably lowering it, while keeping Brazil unchanged around 153 mmt for now
Some private analysts are estimating Brazil’s production as high as 156 mmt which could be possible given the strong yields reported in Mato Grosso
Chinese soybeans have moved higher again but they seem to be intent on waiting for Brazil’s harvest to make purchases

Like what you’re reading?

Mar Chi wheat up 8 @ 7.58, Mar KC up 5 @ 8.91, & Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.21
Wheat is trading higher with Chicago leading the way today but KC behind the bulk of the rally trading at its highest levels since late November
The severe drought in the southwestern Plains is a big concern for 2023 production but rains are forecast over the next 10 days, it is just unclear whether it will be enough
Today’s WASDE report will most likely show adjustments with Ukrainian and Russian ending stocks and production but will probably not change much for the US
Russia has said that they would increase attacks on Ukraine at the beginning of this month which could cause further problems with grain production and shipment

Apr LC up 0.250 @ 163.850 & Mar FC up 0.025 @ 187.225
Both live and feeder cattle are trading a bit higher as cutouts increased and trade hopes for better cash again this week
Cash trade will likely be delayed until Friday again this week, but asking prices in the South are between 161 and 162 which would be 2 to 3 dollars higher than last week
Today’s WASDE report may impact feed prices, but the report is not expected to contain many surprises
Choice cuts up 0.15 and select up 3.61
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/7: up 0.94 @ 182.23

Apr hogs up 1.075 @ 84.350 & Apr pork cutout up 1.225 @ 91.950
Hogs are trading higher this morning after cash moved higher yesterday afternoon, but the cutouts dropped by 3.06 led lower by bellies
Feb hogs are at a dollar discount to the weighted average and have 5 days before they go off the board to converge
Hogs are oversold but appear to be carving out a bottom as technical buying may start to kick in
National Direct Afternoon report rose by 1.73
Hog slaughter projected at 490K
CME Lean Hog Index for 2/8: up 0.22 @ 73.51

Amanda Brill