TFM Midday Update 2-8-2023


  • Mar corn up 2 @ 6.76
  • Corn is trading slightly higher ahead of the WASDE report which may include an adjustment of lower exports
  • Exports have been very sluggish, but Brazil should now be nearly out of corn which would open the window for the US to export more
  •  The USDA may also drop Argentina’s corn production to 45.5 million metric tons which would be down 3 mmt, still higher than most private analyst expectations
  • There were two new corn sales yesterday to both Japan and Mexico which totaled 12.2 mb with most for the 22/23 marketing year but 3.9 mb for the 23/24 year


  • Mar soybeans up 6 @ 15.22
  • Soybeans are working higher today with higher meal but lower bean oil despite crude that continues to work higher
  • Today’s WASDE will most likely make some adjustments to Argentina’s production, probably lowering it, while keeping Brazil unchanged around 153 mmt for now
  • Some private analysts are estimating Brazil’s production as high as 156 mmt which could be possible given the strong yields reported in Mato Grosso
  • Chinese soybeans have moved higher again but they seem to be intent on waiting for Brazil’s harvest to make purchases


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  • Mar Chi wheat up 8 @ 7.58, Mar KC up 5 @ 8.91, & Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.21
  • Wheat is trading higher with Chicago leading the way today but KC behind the bulk of the rally trading at its highest levels since late November
  • The severe drought in the southwestern Plains is a big concern for 2023 production but rains are forecast over the next 10 days, it is just unclear whether it will be enough
  • Today’s WASDE report will most likely show adjustments with Ukrainian and Russian ending stocks  and production but will probably not change much for the US
  • Russia has said that they would increase attacks on Ukraine at the beginning of this month which could cause further problems with grain production and shipment


  • Apr LC up 0.250 @ 163.850 & Mar FC up 0.025 @ 187.225
  • Both live and feeder cattle are trading a bit higher as cutouts increased and trade hopes for better cash again this week
  • Cash trade will likely be delayed until Friday again this week, but asking prices in the South are between 161 and 162 which would be 2 to 3 dollars higher than last week
  • Today’s WASDE report may impact feed prices, but the report is not expected to contain many surprises
  • Choice cuts up 0.15 and select up 3.61
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/7: up 0.94 @ 182.23


  • Apr hogs up 1.075 @ 84.350 & Apr pork cutout up 1.225 @ 91.950
  • Hogs are trading higher this morning after cash moved higher yesterday afternoon, but the cutouts dropped by 3.06 led lower by bellies
  • Feb hogs are at a dollar discount to the weighted average and have 5 days before they go off the board to converge
  • Hogs are oversold but appear to be carving out a bottom as technical buying may start to kick in
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose by 1.73
  • Hog slaughter projected at 490K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/8: up 0.22 @ 73.51


Amanda Brill

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