TFM Midday Update 2-9-2023


  • Mar corn down 4 @ 6.75
  • Corn is trading lower after yesterday’s basically neutral WASDE report which didn’t influence prices much overall
  • Argentina’s corn production was lowered as expected due to the drought and went from 52 mmt to 47 mmt
  • Corn exports were not adjusted in what was a bit of a surprise as US exports have been lagging as cheaper Ukrainian and South American offers are out there
  • Brazil’s corn exports were increased by 3 mmt to 50 mmt, and China is now Brazil’s main customer for both corn and beans


  • Mar soybeans down 4 @ 15.16
  • Soybeans are lower along with bean oil thanks to a drop in crude of over a dollar a barrel while meal moves higher
  • Yesterday’s WASDE report showed a cut in Argentina’s production as expected by 4.5 mmt to 41 mmt but further cuts could come due to the drought
  • Brazilian production was not adjusted but could be raised in a few months due to the good conditions
  • One surprising but not particularly significant change was a decrease in the US crush by 15 mb resulting in an increase in the carryout to 225 mb


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  • Mar Chi wheat down 1 @ 7.65, Mar KC down 8 @ 8.88, & Mar MNPLS down 5 @ 9.21
  • Wheat is lower along with the rest of the grain complex following yesterday’s less than exciting WASDE report which showed essentially no adjustments
  • Russia continues to dominate the export market with aggressive exporters and far cheaper wheat than US offerings
  • India is reportedly considering a temporary ban on wheat exports as they deal with very low domestic supplies
  • The WASDE report had minor changes for Russian and Australian wheat production raising both by about 1 mmt


  • Apr LC up 0.250 @ 163.950 & Mar FC up 0.275 @ 186.725
  • Live and feeder cattle are higher again today helped by a lower dollar but mixed boxed beef and a neutral WASDE report
  • There was an increase in beef production of 50 million pounds for the year which came as a bit of surprise as trade has expected tight supplies
  • Cash cattle asking prices are between 161 and 162 in the South and have started up in the North around 254 which would be better this week for both
  • Choice cuts up 0.48 and select down 4.17
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/8: up 0.06 @ 182.29


  • Apr hogs down 1.600 @ 82.425 & Apr pork cutout down 2.025@ 89.250
  • Hogs are trading lower today as they struggle to find technical support despite higher cash and a move higher in the cutout of 0.73
  • The cash index has risen enough so that Feb hogs should go of the board in line with cash, but now the April contract is at a large premium to the index
  • Yesterday’s WASDE estimated pork production 45 million pounds lower than last month’s estimate which was surprising and should be a bullish figure
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose by 3.51
  • Hog slaughter projected at 485K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/9: up 0.24 @ 73.75


Amanda Brill

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