TFM Midday Update 2-9-2023 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

Mar corn down 4 @ 6.75
Corn is trading lower after yesterday’s basically neutral WASDE report which didn’t influence prices much overall
Argentina’s corn production was lowered as expected due to the drought and went from 52 mmt to 47 mmt
Corn exports were not adjusted in what was a bit of a surprise as US exports have been lagging as cheaper Ukrainian and South American offers are out there
Brazil’s corn exports were increased by 3 mmt to 50 mmt, and China is now Brazil’s main customer for both corn and beans

Mar soybeans down 4 @ 15.16
Soybeans are lower along with bean oil thanks to a drop in crude of over a dollar a barrel while meal moves higher
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed a cut in Argentina’s production as expected by 4.5 mmt to 41 mmt but further cuts could come due to the drought
Brazilian production was not adjusted but could be raised in a few months due to the good conditions
One surprising but not particularly significant change was a decrease in the US crush by 15 mb resulting in an increase in the carryout to 225 mb

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Mar Chi wheat down 1 @ 7.65, Mar KC down 8 @ 8.88, & Mar MNPLS down 5 @ 9.21
Wheat is lower along with the rest of the grain complex following yesterday’s less than exciting WASDE report which showed essentially no adjustments
Russia continues to dominate the export market with aggressive exporters and far cheaper wheat than US offerings
India is reportedly considering a temporary ban on wheat exports as they deal with very low domestic supplies
The WASDE report had minor changes for Russian and Australian wheat production raising both by about 1 mmt

Apr LC up 0.250 @ 163.950 & Mar FC up 0.275 @ 186.725
Live and feeder cattle are higher again today helped by a lower dollar but mixed boxed beef and a neutral WASDE report
There was an increase in beef production of 50 million pounds for the year which came as a bit of surprise as trade has expected tight supplies
Cash cattle asking prices are between 161 and 162 in the South and have started up in the North around 254 which would be better this week for both
Choice cuts up 0.48 and select down 4.17
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/8: up 0.06 @ 182.29

Apr hogs down 1.600 @ 82.425 & Apr pork cutout down 2.025@ 89.250
Hogs are trading lower today as they struggle to find technical support despite higher cash and a move higher in the cutout of 0.73
The cash index has risen enough so that Feb hogs should go of the board in line with cash, but now the April contract is at a large premium to the index
Yesterday’s WASDE estimated pork production 45 million pounds lower than last month’s estimate which was surprising and should be a bullish figure
National Direct Afternoon report rose by 3.51
Hog slaughter projected at 485K
CME Lean Hog Index for 2/9: up 0.24 @ 73.75

Amanda Brill