TFM Midday Update 3-12-2025

CORN

Corn futures continue to trade lower at midday as attention shifts back to weather conditions in South America and the U.S., along with ongoing discussions surrounding tariffs. This follows a neutral USDA report released yesterday regarding corn.
Global exporter stocks are at their third-lowest level on record, and Brazil’s safrinha corn crop will be crucial to the global supply situation.
Traders will remain focused on the weather in Brazil and the U.S. over the next couple of months, as favorable growing conditions will be crucial to the market and crop yields.
Ethanol production slipped to 312 million gallons, down from 321 million gallons the previous week, however this is still up 3.7% from YA. Production was below expectations, with 106 million bushels of corn used in the process.

Soybeans remain lower at midday, following the mostly neutral USDA report released yesterday. The USDA kept the U.S. balance sheet for soybeans and soybean meal unchanged, but global ending stocks were reduced more than anticipated. As a result, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are all trading lower at midday.
Soybean traders continue to monitor weather conditions for the South American harvest, U.S. spring planting, and any updates on tariffs.
The Brazil harvest is now two-thirds complete, and ANEC expects Brazil’s soybean exports for March to reach 15.45 million tons, a 4% increase from last week’s forecast. Soybean prices are expected to stay under pressure due to declining U.S. exports, as a large harvest continues to come out of South America.
Some of the pressure on the soybean market this morning may stem from expected beneficial soil-replenishing rains across parts of the U.S. over the next two weeks.

Wheat futures are trading lower at midday, continuing to feel pressure from the USDA report released yesterday, which showed ending wheat stockpiles at 260.08 MMT, up from 257.56 MMT in the February report.
U.S. weather concerns for the ongoing wheat crop are easing, as beneficial rains are expected for the eastern part of the Northern Plains, along with a lack of cold temperatures in the forecast. Moisture is crucial as the U.S. crop begins to come out dormancy.
Traders remain concerned about the Black Sea region, as dry weather persists for the ongoing wheat crop.
Canada is expected to plant 2.6% more wheat in 2025 compared to 2024, while reducing its canola acreage.

Lauren VandenLangenberg