TFM Midday Update 3-14-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday in the front months while new crop corn trades slightly higher. With soybeans rallying, corn is being pulled lower by lower wheat prices today. In addition, rain is falling across the Corn Belt which could be adding pressure as well.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 50.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, which were in line with trade expectations. Corn sales commitments now total 1.595 billion bushels and are up 27% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 49.5 mb were above the 46.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 100,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher today and broke firmly through the 50-day moving average in the May contract. Support is coming from higher soybean meal and oil. Prices are higher today despite large net cancellations by China in today’s export sales report.
For the week ending March 7, the USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations and puts soybean sales down 20% from the previous year.
Last week’s export shipments of 34.8 mb were well above the 16.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s trade expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and Mexico.
Palm oil is trading at its highest level in over a year, and this has been very supportive for soybean oil and all other edible oils.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today following poor export sales, net cancellations of wheat by China, and talk of more cancellations of French wheat by China as well.
In today’s export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of just 3.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 which was a marketing year low, and an increase of 3.0 mb for 24/25. Wheat exports are up 4% year over year.
Last week’s export shipments of 16.7 mb were just below the 17.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, China, and Mexico.
IKAR is now estimating Russian wheat exports in 2024/2025 near a record high 50 mmt with the harvest expected at 93 mmt.

Amanda Brill