TFM Midday Update 3-18-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday with pressure from improved weather in Brazil which should benefit their second crop corn. Argentina is forecast to receive rain as well, but the best chances this week are for central Brazil which has been dry.
Corn futures were higher earlier this morning after good Chinese import data was reported, but prices have slipped since then. February corn imports were 6.2 mmt, which was up 16.2% compared to a year ago. It is estimated that most of those purchases were from Ukraine and South America.
Corn export inspections were in the upper range of analyst expectations at 1.22 mmt compared to last week’s 1.12 mmt. Total inspections are now up 31% from the previous year.

Soybeans are trading lower near midday with pressure from the advancing soybean harvest. Safras & Mercado is projecting total Brazilian production at 148.6 mmt, which is well below the USDA’s last guess. Last week’s rally in soybeans sparked farmer selling in Brazil, which could be weighing on premiums today.
Brazilian soybean harvest has reached 63% complete according to Ag Rural. That is an 8% increase from last week and compares with 62% completed at this time last year. Farmers in Brazil continue to sell soybeans, pressuring premiums there and potentially limiting upside for the US market.
NOPA crush on Friday was a strong record of 186.2 mb, well above the trade expectation of 178 mb. Additionally, soybean oil stocks at 1.69 billion pounds were above the expectation of 1.59 billion pounds.

Media outlets are reporting that 16 drones were launched by Russia against the Odessa region in Ukraine. Some damage was reported to ag infrastructure. Apparently, this is in retaliation against Ukraine’s own round of strikes against Russian oil refineries last week.
Cheap Russian wheat offers continue to keep the upside limited for US futures. However, Paris milling wheat futures are higher this morning, which is giving a boost to the US market. France is getting too much rain, which is affecting their crop condition.
Taiwan is said to have purchased 97,950 mt of US wheat in their tender, and Algeria is reportedly tendering for 50,000 mt of soft wheat. South Korea also purchased 125,000 mt of feed wheat, which was likely sourced from the US.
With the recent decline in price, May Chicago futures are oversold on daily stochastics. This may indicate that a technical bottom is forming.

Amanda Brill