TFM Midday Update 3-19-2021

CORN

  • May up 9 @ 5.55 & Dec up 1 @ 4.69
  • In Argentina – notable reduction in rainfall across southern half for last wk in March
  • Argentine grains port hub of Rosario will start 24-hr strike today
  • China is back strong this week, eliminating the questions of strong demand
  • Daily export sales of 800K mt to China
  • Brazil getting closer to wrapping up 2nd corn planting but really behind normal pace

SOYBEANS

  • May up 21 @ 14.13 & Nov up 13 @ 12.19
  • Brazil, much of the nation expected to trend drier into next week
  • China’s soybean imports forecast to reach a record 100 MMT in 21/22
  • Argentina continues to lower soybean crop ratings
  • Rains continue to delay harvest but next week should be favorable for field work
  • Bean oil continues to correct and helping support futures today as well.

WHEAT

  • May down 6 @ 6.24, KC May down 3 @ 5.89, MNPLS May down 3 @ 6.22
  • North-western plains remain in drought conditions
  • Eastern plains continue to see ample rains/snow
  • Crop condition of French soft wheat declined slightly to 87% good/excellent
  • Rains in the US and good crop conditions globally continue to pressure wheat complex

CATTLE

  • June LC down .85 @ 118.80 & April FC down 2.15 @ 139.17
  • Sweeping key reversal from overbought conditions – buying opportunity?
  • Cattle on Feed today – cattle placements expected to drop 2.4% from last yr
  • Cattle sold for 114.25-114.50 Tuesday in Texas & Nebraska
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 114K head
  • Feeder Cattle Index for March 17, up .33 @ 133.95
  • Open interest lost 2282 for June futures & lost 1117 contracts for April FC

HOGS

  • April Hogs up .52 @ 94.82 & April Pork Cutout up .05 @ 104.30
  • China will need less pork imports for 2nd half of 2021
  • Packers may be near their spending limit
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 492K head
  • Cash lean index for March 16, up .65 @ 90.56
  • O/I: Lost 3297 positions for April hogs & pork cutout futures gained 8 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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