TFM Midday Update 3-2-2023


  • May corn up 5 @ 6.45
  • Corn is trading higher as rumors circulate that China may be buying US corn
  • Export sales were poor at 23.5 mb for 22/23 and shipments were below what was needed at only 26.2 mb
  • Argentina farmers are protesting an export tax, but it is a big revenue generator for their government
  • China’s internal corn price lost 1.3% on Tuesday, reaching two-month lows
  • The Biden administration is recommending that some Midwest cities be allowed to offer E15 gasoline year-round (starting in 2024)


  • May soybeans up 21 @ 15.25
  • Soybeans have turned around from the recent selloff and are trying to work higher along with meal and bean oil
  • Export sales were disappointing with and increase of 13.3 mb for 22/23 and 4.9 mb for 23/24
  • Export shipments were 32.4 mb and were above the 15.8 mb needed each week
  • Some private estimates are putting the Argentina soybean crop 6-8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate of 41 mmt
  • Palm oil is higher – heavy rains in southeast Asia are threatening production (this may be helping soybean oil)


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  • May Chi wheat up 3 @ 7.13, May KC up 9 @ 8.25, & May MNPLS down 12 @ 8.58
  • Wheat is trading higher as the grain complex reverses its selloff
  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.4 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and 0.6 mb for 23/24
  • Lat week’s export shipments were 22.4 mb and were above the 15.8 mb needed
  • Better chances for moisture in the US southwestern plains have added somewhat of a bearish tone
  • Hot dry weather is expected in India’s wheat growing region
  • The Ukraine ag minister expects 5.2 mmt of grain to have been exported in February
  • Ukraine is still trying to get an extension to the export deal with the addition of new ports


  • Apr LC down 0.200 @ 164.925 & Apr FC up 0.250 @ 194.075
  • Net beef sales were 8,100 mt for 23 and were down 48% from last week with exports of 16,100 mt down 4% from last week
  • Asking prices by feedlots for cash cattle were $1-$2 higher than bids so no cash trade took place yesterday
  • April is now the front month for live cattle
  • Choice cuts down 1.12 and select down 2.82
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/1: up 0.42 @ 183.04


  • Apr hogs down 0.375 @ 84.575 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 91.475
  • Net pork sales of 31,000 mt for 2023 were down 40% from last week while exports of 30,400 mt were up 4% from the week prior
  • Lower cutouts were unsupportive
  • The market needs to see improved demand to support futures
  • National Direct Afternoon report gained 1.59
  • Hog slaughter projected at 485K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/2: up 0.07 @ 78.58


Amanda Brill

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