TFM Midday Update 3-2-2023

CORN

May corn up 5 @ 6.45
Corn is trading higher as rumors circulate that China may be buying US corn
Export sales were poor at 23.5 mb for 22/23 and shipments were below what was needed at only 26.2 mb
Argentina farmers are protesting an export tax, but it is a big revenue generator for their government
China’s internal corn price lost 1.3% on Tuesday, reaching two-month lows
The Biden administration is recommending that some Midwest cities be allowed to offer E15 gasoline year-round (starting in 2024)

May soybeans up 21 @ 15.25
Soybeans have turned around from the recent selloff and are trying to work higher along with meal and bean oil
Export sales were disappointing with and increase of 13.3 mb for 22/23 and 4.9 mb for 23/24
Export shipments were 32.4 mb and were above the 15.8 mb needed each week
Some private estimates are putting the Argentina soybean crop 6-8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate of 41 mmt
Palm oil is higher – heavy rains in southeast Asia are threatening production (this may be helping soybean oil)

Like what you’re reading?

May Chi wheat up 3 @ 7.13, May KC up 9 @ 8.25, & May MNPLS down 12 @ 8.58
Wheat is trading higher as the grain complex reverses its selloff
The USDA reported an increase of 10.4 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and 0.6 mb for 23/24
Lat week’s export shipments were 22.4 mb and were above the 15.8 mb needed
Better chances for moisture in the US southwestern plains have added somewhat of a bearish tone
Hot dry weather is expected in India’s wheat growing region
The Ukraine ag minister expects 5.2 mmt of grain to have been exported in February
Ukraine is still trying to get an extension to the export deal with the addition of new ports

Apr LC down 0.200 @ 164.925 & Apr FC up 0.250 @ 194.075
Net beef sales were 8,100 mt for 23 and were down 48% from last week with exports of 16,100 mt down 4% from last week
Asking prices by feedlots for cash cattle were $1-$2 higher than bids so no cash trade took place yesterday
April is now the front month for live cattle
Choice cuts down 1.12 and select down 2.82
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/1: up 0.42 @ 183.04

Apr hogs down 0.375 @ 84.575 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 91.475
Net pork sales of 31,000 mt for 2023 were down 40% from last week while exports of 30,400 mt were up 4% from the week prior
Lower cutouts were unsupportive
The market needs to see improved demand to support futures
National Direct Afternoon report gained 1.59
Hog slaughter projected at 485K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/2: up 0.07 @ 78.58

Amanda Brill