TFM Midday Update 3-20-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning but has remained rangebound over the past week hovering right at the 40-day moving average. Pressure today is likely coming from weakness in wheat futures along with a good weather forecast for South America.
Argentina is expected to receive rains over the next few days before the forecast turns slightly drier next week, Yesterday, Dr. Cordonnier increased his estimate for Argentine production by 1 mmt. Brazil continues to see scattered showers over the next 10 days.
For the January-February time frame, Chinese customs reports have shown that China has imported a total of 6.2 mmt of corn, of which 4.1 mmt came from Brazil. That is 178% above the previous year and lowers US exports to China by 67%.

Soybeans are trading higher today with support from both soybean meal and oil along with a reported flash sale to unknown destinations. Similar to corn, soybeans have been mostly rangebound over the past week and have met resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1200.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. So far, new crop sales are behind last year’s pace as Brazil harvests their soy crop.
Chinese import data showed total soybean imports from Brazil totaling 6.96 mmt during the first two months of this year which is up 211% from a year ago. Chinese imports from the US fell to 4.96 mmt which is down 48.9% from last year.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today after rallying on news of grain infrastructure attacks in the Black Sea region. The rallies sparked by news of conflict between Ukraine and Russia have typically only lasted a short period of time before traders have lost interest.
The EU made a decision to impose higher tariffs on Russian grain into Europe in an effort to combat the low prices, but it has had very little effect as Europe does not import the bulk of its grain from Russia.
Yesterday, the USDA saw wheat conditions in Kansas increase to 55% good to excellent from 53%. In Oklahoma, ratings fell to 61% from 65%, and in Texas, they were increased to 46% from 44%.

Brandon Doherty