TFM Midday Update 3-22-2023

CORN

May corn UNCH @ 6.30
Private exporters reported sales of 178,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year
Today the Fed is expected to raise interest rates 25 basis points (but could be up to 50)
As of the most recent available Commitments of Traders repot (March 14th) the funds are short corn for the first time since August 20
May corn on China’s Dalian exchange had the lowest close in 3 months, but is still expensive (around the equivalent of $10.21 per bushel)

May soybeans down 13 @ 14.54
Talk that Brazil does not have enough storage for both a record corn and soybean crop could lead to farmers likely selling soybeans
The US ag attaché in Beijing expects Chinese soybean consumption to increase to 116 mmt in 23/24
May soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange hit the lowest close in 7 months and are around the equivalent of $16.40 per bushel
May soybean meal has lost $43 per ton over 15 days

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May Chi wheat down 17 @ 6.66, May KC down 6 @ 8.14, & May MNPLS down 7 @ 8.39
There is some concern about Australian wheat down the road due to the shift from La Nina to El Nino
As of the March 14th data, the funds were still short about 98,000 contracts of Chi wheat
Wheat in India was reported to have been damaged by hail and torrential rains
Paris milling wheat futures are lower for the 5th day in a row

Apr LC down 0.750 @ 161.675 & Apr FC down 0.625 @ 194.075
Cash may be steady at best this week
Some cattle have been purchased ahead and with weakness of boxed beef, packers may not be very aggressive
Lower corn futures could provide support to feeder cattle
April live cattle have a chart gap above the market which could yet be filled
Choice cuts down 1.10 and select down 2.39
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/21: down 0.23 @ 187.78

Brandon Doherty