TFM Midday Update 3-28-2025

CORN

Corn futures are experiencing a pullback at midday, driven by weakness in the wheat markets, along with President Trump’s threats of significantly higher tariffs if Canada and Mexico collaborate against the US.
The corn markets continue to show weakness in Friday’s trade as traders await the USDA report set to be released on Monday. The USDA is expected to estimate corn acreage at 94.36 million, significantly higher than last year’s 90.6 million.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange pegged Argentine conditions at 27% good/excellent, down 2% from last week and compared to 22% last year. Harvest in this area is estimated to be 19.2%

The soybean market remains on a downward trend at midday as traders position themselves ahead of what is expected to be a volatile trading session on Monday, with the release of the USDA’s anticipated acreage report and a potential tariff announcement next week. Meanwhile, soybean oil continues to gain momentum, posting gains.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s bean conditions 1% to 32% good to excellent compared to 31% last year.
Argentina’s soybean sales so far have been the slowest in 10 years at 8.4 million tons, or 18% of the crop, due to worries over a weakening currency.
AgroConsult, following a recent crop tour, raised their Brazilian production forecast to 172.1 million tons, up from the USDA’s estimate of 169 million tons, citing record yields in six Brazilian states.
In the US, the central and eastern Corn Belt regions are expected to receive rainfall over the next week, which should significantly improve soil moisture levels before planting, though it may also cause some delays in fieldwork.

The entire wheat complex is trading lower at midday, driven by improvements in global wheat growing regions, weak demand, and a soft technical outlook.
Wheat is facing pressure from improved chances of rain in the Black Sea region next week, along with showers expected in eastern Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota over the next five days. However, this rainfall is forecast to miss the Southwest Plains once again.
Monday’s USDA report is expecting all wheat seedings at 46.48 million acres, up from 46.10 in 2024 and quarterly stocks are expected at 1.215 billion bushels, up from 1.087 in March last year.
The potential activation of the Black Sea transportation agreement has caused Romanian and Bulgarian wheat prices to drop sharply, although US SRW remains the cheapest origin.

Lauren VandenLangenberg