TFM Midday Update 3-3-2023

CORN

May corn up 5 @ 6.39
Corn futures are trading higher again as US corn prices begin to get more competitive in the world marketplace
Last week’s export sales of 23.5 mb were only half the needed amount to meet the USDA’s expectations
There have been rumors that COFCO has bought as much as 1.5 mmt of US corn
The Buenos Aires grain exchange dropped their corn crop rating to only 6% good to excellent while 56% is rated poor to very poor

May soybeans up 13 @ 15.22
Soybeans are trading higher today in an attempt to get back to their recent upward trading range
Bean oil has slipped despite a gain in palm oil of 1.5% while crude is higher as well
The Buenos Aires grain exchange revised their crop conditions lower again with the good to excellent rating down to just 2% of the crop and poor to very poor up to 67%
Crush margins have been supportive but total crush is now running 1% below a year ago
Some private estimates are putting the Argentina soybean crop 6-8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate of 41 mmt

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May Chi wheat down 1 @ 7.13, May KC down 1 @ 8.25, & May MNPLS up 13 @ 8.71
Wheat is the only grain trading lower today as Russian wheat offers make decent US exports difficult
The USDA reported an increase of 10.4 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and 0.6 mb for 23/24
Lat week’s export shipments were 22.4 mb and were above the 15.8 mb needed
Better chances for moisture in the US southwestern plains have added somewhat of a bearish tone
The Ukraine ag minister expects 5.2 mmt of grain to have been exported in February

Apr LC up 1.300 @ 165.450 & Apr FC up 2.075 @ 195.950
Both live and feeder cattle are higher again today with feeders showing big gains despite higher corn
Higher cash by 1 to 2 dollars is expected again this week and higher futures are supporting that as packers need to acquire animals
Weekly exports last week were very poor at just 8,100 mt which is down 48% from the previous week
Choice cuts up 0.67 and select up 1.15
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/2: up 1.40 @ 184.02

Apr hogs up 0.525 @ 84.400 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 90.425
Hogs are trading mixed with front month April posting some gains
While cash was down, cutouts rose 0.19 which isn’t enough to offer major support
Last week’s cutouts were good at 31,000 mt but were down 40% from the previous week
National Direct Afternoon report lost 0.80
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/3: up 0.07 @ 78.65

Amanda Brill