TFM Midday Update 3-3-2023


  • May corn up 5 @ 6.39
  • Corn futures are trading higher again as US corn prices begin to get more competitive in the world marketplace
  • Last week’s export sales of 23.5 mb were only half the needed amount to meet the USDA’s expectations
  • There have been rumors that COFCO has bought as much as 1.5 mmt of US corn
  • The Buenos Aires grain exchange dropped their corn crop rating to only 6% good to excellent while 56% is rated poor to very poor


  • May soybeans up 13 @ 15.22
  • Soybeans are trading higher today in an attempt to get back to their recent upward trading range
  • Bean oil has slipped despite a gain in palm oil of 1.5% while crude is higher as well
  • The Buenos Aires grain exchange revised their crop conditions lower again with the good to excellent rating down to just 2% of the crop and poor to very poor up to 67%
  • Crush margins have been supportive but total crush is now running 1% below a year ago
  • Some private estimates are putting the Argentina soybean crop 6-8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate of 41 mmt


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  • May Chi wheat down 1 @ 7.13, May KC down 1 @ 8.25, & May MNPLS up 13 @ 8.71
  • Wheat is the only grain trading lower today as Russian wheat offers make decent US exports difficult
  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.4 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and 0.6 mb for 23/24
  • Lat week’s export shipments were 22.4 mb and were above the 15.8 mb needed
  • Better chances for moisture in the US southwestern plains have added somewhat of a bearish tone
  • The Ukraine ag minister expects 5.2 mmt of grain to have been exported in February


  • Apr LC up 1.300 @ 165.450 & Apr FC up 2.075 @ 195.950
  • Both live and feeder cattle are higher again today with feeders showing big gains despite higher corn
  • Higher cash by 1 to 2 dollars is expected again this week and higher futures are supporting that as packers need to acquire animals
  • Weekly exports last week were very poor at just 8,100 mt which is down 48% from the previous week
  • Choice cuts up 0.67 and select up 1.15
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/2: up 1.40 @ 184.02


  • Apr hogs up 0.525 @ 84.400 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 90.425
  • Hogs are trading mixed with front month April posting some gains
  • While cash was down, cutouts rose 0.19 which isn’t enough to offer major support
  • Last week’s cutouts were good at 31,000 mt but were down 40% from the previous week
  • National Direct Afternoon report lost 0.80
  • Hog slaughter projected at 480K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 3/3: up 0.07 @ 78.65


Amanda Brill

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