TFM Midday Update 3-31-2022

CORN

May corn down 1 @ 7.37
USDA reported an increase of 25.1 mb of corn export sales in 21/22, and an increase of 11.3 mb for 22/23
US may release 180 million barrels of crude oil out of strategic reserves – this is pressuring the crude market
Argentina is reportedly limiting the sale of diesel fuel, which could slow harvest for corn (and soybeans)
The Biden administration is considering allowing higher ethanol blends for summer sales

May soybeans up 8 @ 16.72
USDA reported an increase of 48.0 mb of soybean export sales in 21/22, and an increase of 2.0 mb for 22/23
Rumors that China bought US soybeans to replace 3.5 mmt of soybeans they recently sold out of their reserves – this may offer support to the soybean market
Talk that Chinese hog producers have negative margins and are trying to use alternatives to soybean meal for feed – this raises concern about their soybean imports
Lower crude oil may pressure soybean oil futures

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May wheat up 11 @ 10.38, May KC up 11 @ 10.56, May MNPLS up 16 @ 10.73
USDA reported an increase of 3.5 mb of wheat export sales for 21/22, and an increase of 3.0 mb for 22/23
World wheat importers are tendering for wheat after the recent fall in wheat prices – these include Taiwan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Jordan
Forecast for the HRW wheat areas is mostly dry for the next couple weeks
APK-Inform is projecting Ukrainian wheat production to decrease 54% (to 14.86 mmt)

Apr LC down 0.350 @ 139.825 & Apr FC down 1.250 @ 162.425
Weekly export sales of 23,000 mt (down 17% from the previous week)
A bullish grain stocks report could mean higher grain prices and pressure feedlots to move cattle
Domestic demand remains strong
Choice cuts up 2.04 and select up 2.62
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/30: up 0.12 @ 155.41

Apr hogs down 0.900 @ 103.625 & Apr pork cutout up 0.225 @ 109.500
Weekly export sales of 27,600 mt (up 19% from the previous week)
Hogs and Pigs report was bullish: all hogs & pigs down 2%, hogs kept for breeding at 98%, marketings at 98% of a year ago
National Direct Afternoon report increased 1.00
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/31: up 0.10 @ 103.66

Brandon Doherty