TFM Midday Update 4-1-2022

CORN

May corn down 14 @ 7.35
USDA is estimating corn acreage at 89.5 million
USDA is estimating March 1 corn stocks at 7.850 bb
Private exporters reported export sales of 136,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown during the 21/22 marketing year
7 day forecast suggests broad precipitation over the eastern part of the corn belt (western areas are drier)
Brazil’s safrinha corn has chances for rain this weekend – Argentina is drier
May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.37 per bushel

May soybeans down 25 @ 15.93
USDA is estimating soybean acreage at 91.0 million
USDA is estimating March 1 soybean stocks at 1.931 bb
Crush demand remains strong
Palm oil is lower after it was reported that Malaysia increased exports by 7% in March
Crude oil took a hit after news that the US would release 180 million barrels from strategic reserves – this may pressure soybean oil
May soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $21.24 per bushel

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May wheat down 7 @ 9.99, May KC up 2 @ 10.32, May MNPLS up 10 @ 10.89
USDA is estimating all wheat acreage at 47.4 million
USDA is estimating March 1 wheat stocks at 1.025 bb
Yesterday’s selloff in wheat seems to be unrelated to the USDA reports
Climate Prediction Center’s drought outlook suggests drought in the western US will remain through June
War continues in Ukraine and harvest of wheat and logistics of shipping are still major concerns
US wheat export sales are still down 24% from last year (despite expectations of more export demand due to the war)

Apr LC up 0.250 @ 139.625 & Apr FC up 1.100 @ 162.500
Cash was higher yesterday, which may continue today
Higher cash and strength in boxed beef should support futures
Estimate of lower corn planted acreage could lead to higher feed prices eventually
Choice cuts up 1.35 and select up 4.88
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/31: up 0.35 @ 155.76

Brandon Doherty