TFM Midday Update 4-10-2023

CORN

May corn up 6 @ 6.50
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning while weather forecasts have turned more favorable for planting over the next 10 days.
Tomorrow’s WASDE report isn’t expected to hold big changes, but the carryout could be lowered due to higher demand.
US corn export commitments are below a year ago by 33% so its possible that the USDA could lower exports tomorrow.
The average trade guess for Brazil’s second crop corn is a record 126.4 mmt and should offset the drop in Argentinian production.

May soybeans up 1 @ 14.94
Front month beans are a bit higher while Nov is a penny lower, but overall trade is quiet as the market waits for the WASDE numbers.
Big changes are not expected in soybeans either in tomorrow’s WASDE, but some analysts think that the carryout may be decreased slightly.
The Dow Jones estimate for ending stocks is pegged at 201 mb, but the decline in exports recently may add some bushels to that number.
The averages estimates for Argentina’s crop are at 29 mmt which is down 19 mmt from projections early this year after the country was hit by extreme drought.

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May Chi wheat up 5 @ 6.80, May KC up 11 @ 8.76, & May MNPLS up 4 @ 8.76
Wheat is slightly higher this morning as rumors are floating around that Russia may not extend the Black Sea grain deal in May.
A high-pressure ridge is forecast to set up in the Plains this week with temperatures warming up.
Tomorrow’s WASDE is expected to show a mild increase in ending stocks as exports have been dismal, but they are still the lowest in 15 years at 581 mb.
World wheat ending stocks with China excluded are forecast to fall to a 10-year low.

Apr LC up 0.075 @ 171.150 & Apr FC up 0.200 @ 200.825
Both live and feeder cattle are trading slightly higher and live cattle are making new contract highs again today following strong cash trade.
Last week cash trade in the South was mostly done at 170, about 4 dollars better, and 275 in the North, about 6 dollars better.
CoT data showed funds as buyers of 23,744 contracts increasing their net long position to 83,230 contracts.
Choice cuts up 1.33 and select down 0.85.
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K.
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/6: down 0.07 @ 193.22.

Apr hogs down 0.550 @ 73.600 & Apr pork cutout down 0.425 @ 78.975
Hogs are lower in the April contract but higher in all the other months despite a drop in cash and the cutout by 0.78.
Weights fell last week by 0.6 pounds to an average of 287.1 which is supportive as packers will need to buy more animals to make up for tonnage.
CoT data showed funds as buyers of 244 contracts last week reducing their net short position to 27,663 contracts.
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.25.
Hog slaughter projected at 356K.
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/10: down 1.03 @ 72.88.

Amanda Brill