TFM Midday Update 4-11-2024

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 12.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 61.3 mb surpassed the 42.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the export estimate of 2.100 bb.
Ethanol production was a record for this week of the year at 1.056 million bpd. In addition, this was the third week in a row with record production.
CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop to 110.9 mmt from 112.7 previously. They also lowered Brazil’s corn export forecast by 1 mmt to 31 mmt. For comparison, the March USDA estimate is 52 mmt.
The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s corn production by 6.5 mmt to 50.5 mmt. The cause of the decline is said to be disease pressure left by a prevalence of small grasshoppers.
South American weather remains mostly favorable, and some of the drier southwest and southcentral areas should receive moisture this weekend and into next week. This should give a boost to the safrinha corn crop.

The USDA reported an increase of 11.2 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 18.5 mb surpassed the 14.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the export estimate of 1.720 bb.
Although they lowered their corn estimate, the Rosario Grain Exchange left their projection of Argentina’s soybean crop unchanged at 50 mmt and is in line with the March USDA estimate.
CONAB left their estimate of Brazilian soybean production virtually unchanged. Today’s number came in at 146.5 mmt versus 146.85 last month. The bigger news may be that they decreased their soybean export forecast from 101.9 mmt to 92.25 mmt.
India’s palm oil imports are said to have dropped to the lowest level in 10 months. As they are the number one vegetable oil importer globally, this has had palm oil on the decline, which may also be weighing on soybean oil.

The USDA reported an increase of 3.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 10.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 23.0 mb surpassed the 17.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the export estimate of 710 mb.
Some of the areas of the western Corn Belt and southern Plains have missed out on recent rains. This may lead to a deterioration of the winter wheat crop quality that may be reflected on next week’s Crop Progress report.
It is now being reported that Russian wheat FOB values are nearly $15 higher than just a few weeks ago. This, combined with news that some Russian wheat is being held up in port due to quality concerns, should be supportive to futures prices.
The US Dollar Index continues to rise after yesterday’s CPI data indicated that inflation continues to be an issue. This may leave the funds relatively unconcerned, as they are estimated to still hold a combined net short wheat position of over 130,000 contracts this morning.

Brandon Doherty