TFM Midday Update 4-2-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower at midday for the second consecutive day in quiet trade that has May corn just below the 20-day moving average. Recent rains in the Midwest have improved soil moisture ahead of planting which could be pressuring prices.
The US attaché in Brazil has lowered their estimate for the 23/24 Brazilian corn crop to 122 mmt which is slightly below the most recent USDA estimate but still well above CONAB’s last guess of 112 mmt.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA Grain Crushings report was released and showed a record high ethanol grind for the month of February. They also revised the January grind higher, and this points to potentially higher numbers on the April report than previously expected.

Soybeans are trading higher today primarily from the strength in the soybean oil and veg oil markets. Palm oil and the other veg oils have been working higher recently on increased demand. Soybean meal is lower today and will likely be pressured by Argentina’s soy harvest.
Yesterday afternoon, the Fats and Oils report was released and saw a new record for February soybean crush at 196.4 mb. This was slightly lower than the average trade guess but crush the month of February is up 5.4% so far.
With exports sluggish lately, and South America harvesting their soybean crop and taking most of the export business, there has been little in the way of bullish fundamentals, especially with US soybean planting intentions assumed to be higher this year. Soybean oil has been the main factor supporting soybeans.

Wheat is mostly lower at midday. Recent rains in the southwestern Plains have improved crop ratings and improved soil moisture.
The USDA reported new crop ratings for winter wheat increasing the good to excellent rating to 56% which is the best in recent years with only 11% of the crop rated poor to very poor. Hard red winter wheat is rated 54% good to excellent while soft red is 68%. Spring wheat is reportedly 1% planted.
India is expected to import wheat in the 24/25 marketing year despite expectations of a record harvest. This is due to a decline in government stockpiles and low prices globally. This would be the first time that India imported wheat since 2017.

Amanda Brill