CORN
- May corn down 14 @ 8.02
- USDA reported an increase of 34.6 mb of corn export sales for 21/22 and an increase of 15.3 mb for 22/23
- Ethanol production fell to 947K barrels per day last week (from 995K) which is the lowest weekly production since September 2021
- The Ministry of Agriculture in China said spring planting is 21% complete
- September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.87 per bushel
- Dryness in central Brazil could reduce their 2nd corn crop and limit their exports
SOYBEANS
- May soybeans down 6 @ 17.41
- USDA reported an increase of 16.9 mb of soybean export sales for 21/22 and an increase of 45.6 mb for 22/23
- Both May and November soybeans posted new high closes yesterday
- Soybean crush values are historically high and are an incentive to crushers
- The US is competitive vs South America August forward in regards to soybean exports
- About 1/3 of China’s population is on covid lockdown (that is more than the entire population of the United States) – this causes concern about their food / energy consumption and import demand for commodities
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WHEAT
- May wheat down 17 @ 10.71, May KC down 14 @ 11.49, May MNPLS up 3 @ 11.72
- USDA reported an increase of 1.0 mb of wheat export sales for 21/22 and an increase of 8.8 mb for 22/23
- A winter storm watch in parts of North Dakota and Montana could delay spring wheat plantings
- Some Russian wheat is still being exported
- There is not much fresh news in the wheat market, which may be leading to profit taking
CATTLE
- Jun LC up 0.700 @ 139.325 & May FC up 0.875 @ 163.350
- Weekly export sales of 15,000 mt (down 13% from last week)
- Packers have been aggressive this week to obtain needed supplies
- Lower corn futures may strengthen the cattle complex
- Choice cuts down 1.11 and select down 2.68
- Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/20: up 0.17 @ 154.66
HOGS
- Jun hogs down 1.900 @ 116.850 & Jun pork cutout down 1.500 @ 123.400
- Weekly export sales of 12,900 mt (down 46% from last week)
- Long liquidation in hogs could be attributed to lower cutouts this week
- May hogs are still at a premium to cash, but this difference is narrowing
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.41
- Hog Slaughter projected at 479K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 4/21: up 0.95 @ 100.93
Author
Brandon Doherty