TFM Midday Update 4-22-2022

CORN

May corn down 13 @ 7.86
Private exporters reported 1,347,000 mt of corn for delivery to China, and 281,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico
Dryness in central Brazil could be stressing their 2^nd corn crop
South American corn prices are cheaper than the US which may limit corn exports
Talk that on May 4^th the Fed will raise interest rates 50 basis points
Cold & wet weather in much of the eastern Midwest may delay plantings there
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 18% of Argentina’s corn crop good to excellent (vs 20% last week)

May soybeans down 24 @ 17.24
Private exporters reported 144,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico
Late soybean crop in Argentina could be stressed due to dry conditions there
Lockdowns in Shanghai, China are restricting vessels from unloading at ports which could slow their buying of US soybeans
China needs to buy about 7 mmt of soybeans per month to satisfy the 92 mmt import demand
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 18% of Argentina’s soybean crop good to excellent (vs 23% last week)

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May wheat down 5 @ 10.63, May KC down up 1 @ 11.39, & May MNPLS up 2 @ 11.53
US wheat is still not competitive compared to eastern European prices
Chances of light showers across the southern plains over the coming weeks but they will probably not be significant
Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal drought outlook showing increased drought conditions through the end of July in most of Iowa
Russia did a test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, adding to war concerns
Winter wheat crop ratings are expected to remain poor on Monday’s crop progress report

Jun LC up 0.550 @ 139.350 & May FC up 0.375 @ 164.475
Cattle on Feed report out this afternoon
Pre-report estimates: on feed at 100.4%, placements at 92.2%, and marketings at 98.2%
Weaker corn futures may be supportive to cattle prices
Choice cuts up 1.35 and select down 0.85
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/21: down 0.76 @ 153.90

Jun hogs up 2.325 @ 119.500 & Jun pork cutout up 1.000 @ 124.850
Higher cutouts yesterday are supportive to futures
Higher cash and cutouts may indicate that liquidation has run its course
Poor weekly export sales are still a concern – 12,900 mt was a marketing year low
National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.06
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/22: up 0.32 @ 101.25

Brandon Doherty