TFM Midday Update 4-22-2022


  • May corn down 13 @ 7.86
  • Private exporters reported 1,347,000 mt of corn for delivery to China, and 281,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico
  • Dryness in central Brazil could be stressing their 2nd corn crop
  • South American corn prices are cheaper than the US which may limit corn exports
  • Talk that on May 4th the Fed will raise interest rates 50 basis points
  • Cold & wet weather in much of the eastern Midwest may delay plantings there
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 18% of Argentina’s corn crop good to excellent (vs 20% last week)


  • May soybeans down 24 @ 17.24
  • Private exporters reported 144,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico
  • Late soybean crop in Argentina could be stressed due to dry conditions there
  • Lockdowns in Shanghai, China are restricting vessels from unloading at ports which could slow their buying of US soybeans
  • China needs to buy about 7 mmt of soybeans per month to satisfy the 92 mmt import demand
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 18% of Argentina’s soybean crop good to excellent (vs 23% last week)


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  • May wheat down 5 @ 10.63May KC down up 1 @ 11.39, & May MNPLS up 2 @ 11.53
  • US wheat is still not competitive compared to eastern European prices
  • Chances of light showers across the southern plains over the coming weeks but they will probably not be significant
  • Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal drought outlook showing increased drought conditions through the end of July in most of Iowa
  • Russia did a test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, adding to war concerns
  • Winter wheat crop ratings are expected to remain poor on Monday’s crop progress report


  • Jun LC up 0.550 @ 139.350 & May FC up 0.375 @ 164.475
  • Cattle on Feed report out this afternoon
  • Pre-report estimates: on feed at 100.4%, placements at 92.2%, and marketings at 98.2%
  • Weaker corn futures may be supportive to cattle prices
  • Choice cuts up 1.35 and select down 0.85
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/21: down 0.76 @ 153.90


  • Jun hogs up 2.325 @ 119.500 & Jun pork cutout up 1.000 @ 124.850
  • Higher cutouts yesterday are supportive to futures
  • Higher cash and cutouts may indicate that liquidation has run its course
  • Poor weekly export sales are still a concern – 12,900 mt was a marketing year low
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.06
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/22: up 0.32 @ 101.25


Brandon Doherty

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