TFM Midday Update 4-25-2022


  • May corn unchanged @ 7.93
  • Russia is said to be shelling most if not all of the Ukraine port cities
  • Crude oil trading lower on increase in China covid cases which may lower their demand for energies
  • 7 day forecast for central Brazil is mostly dry which could stress the safrinha corn
  • September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.54 per bushel


  • May soybeans down 27 @ 17.89
  • Talk of lockdowns in Beijing, China are increasing concerns about their import demand of commodities (especially soybeans)
  • The market anticipates that Brazil will be out of the export market after the start of August which could help demand for US soybeans
  • Indonesia announced the will allow some palm oil exports which caused soybean oil to back off from highs
  • May soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $22.07 per bushel


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  • May wheat down 11 @ 10.54, May KC down 4 @ 11.39, & May MNPLS up 5 @ 11.65
  • KC wheat is gaining on Chicago due to dry weather
  • Another 1-2% decline in condition for the HRW wheat crop is expected
  • 7 day forecast shows chances of rain for the eastern edge of the southern plains
  • Over the weekend, Montana and North Dakota received another winter storm which increases concern about spring wheat planting
  • Fighting continues in southern and eastern Ukraine but some winter wheat may be able to be harvested in western areas (though there will still be risk)


  • Jun LC up 3.700 @ 134.725 & May FC up 3.300 @ 160.575
  • Cattle on Feed report results: on feed at 102% (100.4% expected), placements at 100% (92.2% expected), marketings at 98% (98.2% expected)
  • On feed number is the highest since 1996
  • Feedlots may hold out for higher cash (strong slaughter pace and corn prices are lower)
  • Choice cuts down 2.26 and select down 0.96
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/22: up 1.31 @ 155.21


  • Jun hogs down 3.800 @ 114.975 & Jun pork cutout down 2.650 @ 122.200
  • Packers expected to be aggressive early in the week
  • Supply of hogs remains tight which is supportive
  • Bearishness in cattle may spill over into hogs
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 6.91
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/25: up 0.42 @ 101.67


Brandon Doherty

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