TFM Midday Update 4-30-2024

CORN

Corn is trading a little lower today but is relatively quiet compared to the losses in both soybeans and wheat. There were no deliveries against the May corn contract, which has been supportive today.
The Brazilian corn crop for 23/24 has been revised higher by consultancy Datagro to 115.85 mmt which compares to their last estimate of 114.9 mmt. The revision higher is due to increased production in the central growing regions thanks to improved weather.
Yesterday evening, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed corn plantings at 27% complete which was right on the nose with trade estimates, compared to 12% last week, and the 5-year average of 22%. 7% of the corn crop is emerged which compares to 3% last week and 5% a year ago.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday with the bulk of pressure coming from sharply lower soybean oil which has reached its lowest value since March of 2021. July soybeans failed at their 50-day moving average yesterday and have drifted lower since.
There were 533 deliveries against the May soybeans this morning, 222 against soybean meal, and notably, 2,101 deliveries against May soybean oil. The large number of deliveries are weighing on futures, along with lower palm oil.
The USDA’s crop progress report showed that 18% of the soybean crop has been planted, which was slightly above the average trade guess of 17%. This compares to 8% last week and the 5-year average of 10% for this time of year.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today with the bulk of losses in KC wheat while Chicago and then Minneapolis follow behind. Winter wheat crop conditions fell by one point from last week, but the pressure over the past two days is likely due to farmer selling following last week’s sharp rally.
This morning, there were 1,151 contracts of wheat delivered against the May Chicago contract with the nearest short date on April 29. While this was a large number of deliveries, there were none reported for KC or Minneapolis wheat.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 49% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, which is 1 point down from last week but is still above last year’s rating of 28%. 34% of spring wheat is planted which compares to 15% last week, and 5% of spring wheat is emerged which compares to 2% last week.

Amanda Brill