TFM Midday Update 4-5-2022


  • May corn up 7 @ 7.58
  • Ukraine war continues and President Zelensky will address the UN to ask for more help
  • China’s recent purchase of over 1 mmt of US corn is positive to the market – rumors that they have bought an additional 2-3 mmt might be announced soon
  • Current conditions are too wet in parts of the eastern Midwest which may delay corn plantings


  • May soybeans up 24 @ 16.26
  • China is on holiday but is expected to come back and start buying US soybeans as early as Wednesday
  • Brazil FOB prices are competitive until August – then they are above US
  • Higher meal and oil are supporting soybeans
  • Shanghai, China remains in quarantine due to rising covid cases


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  • May wheat up 38 @ 10.48, May KC up 43 @ 10.81, May MNPLS up 25 @ 11.10
  • There is talk of more sanctions against Russia because of war crimes
  • US winter wheat crop rated 30% good to excellent (vs 40% expected and 53% last year)
  • April – May weather outlook is warm and dry for the western HRW areas – this may expand further east in May


  • Apr LC down 0.850 @ 137.150 & Apr FC down 1.475 @ 156.900
  • Monday cash trade steady with last week
  • Early trade could indicate that packers need cattle and may be more aggressive
  • Higher grain prices are not supportive to cattle futures
  • Choice cuts up 0.90 and select down 0.82
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/4: up 0.10 at 156.15


  • Apr hogs down 0.225 @ 99.225 & Apr pork cutout unchanged @ 106.500
  • Fundamentals are still supportive long term
  • Concern about exports as China has locked down several cities due to covid outbreaks
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.38
  • Hog slaughter projected at 478K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/5: down 0.22 @ 102.41


Brandon Doherty

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