TFM Midday Update 4-5-21


  • May corn down 4-1/2 @ 5.55-1/2 & Dec corn up 5-3/4 @ 4.90-1/4
  • Central Brazil’s primary safrinha corn area remains too dry after seeing less than 50% of normal rains in the past 30 days
  • Little sign of demand rationing – many analysts see the potential for an ending stocks number approaching the 1 bb mark
  • Datagro (agricultural consulting agency) in Brazil pegs the Brazilian corn crop at a record 109.3 mmt. The latest USDA number is 109 mmt.
  • DTN national corn index closed at $5.49
  • Dec corn continuing to find support from last week’s lower acreage estimate


  • May up 16 @ 14.18 Nov up 9-1/2 @ 12.73-1/4
  • Thursday’s soybean crush statistic for Feb showed crush at 164.3 mb, down 16% from January
  • First half of the 2020-2021 season reflects record soybean demand of 3.13 bb
  • Datagro has a record soybean production forecast for Brazil at 135.47 mmt. The Current USDA is 133 mmt.
  • Bearish concerns for the soy complex might be renewed with covid restrictions in some areas (France on another 4 week lockdown & India reporting a record 100,000 new covid cases in the last 24 hours)
  • DTN national soybean index closed at $13.72


  • May wheat up 7-1/4 @ 6.18-1/4, May KC wheat up 1-1/2 @ 5.66-1/2, May MNPLS up 4-1/2 @ 6.04
  • Bearish catalyst continues to be slow demand and better new-crop conditions in the EU and the Black Sea
  • Russian and Ukraine wheat export prices continue to slide lower on weak demand and excellent crop conditions
  • US Western Plains and Northern Plains areas remain too dry
  • This morning USDA reported private export sales of 130,000 mt of SRW wheat to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2021-22 marketing year
  • DTN national wheat index closed at $5.34


  • Jun cattle up 1.525 @ 124.050 & Apr FC up 2.725 @ 146.600
  • Boxed beef prices showing exceptional strength – seasonal demand is increasing
  • Restaurant traffic improving as consumers feel more confident dining out
  • Packers expected to be somewhat aggressive this week as they can’t afford not to purchase cattle to meet strong demand
  • Feedlots will be looking for higher prices this week
  • Saturday’s week to date slaughter at 609K head, compared to 649K head last week


  • Apr hogs up 0.975 @ 102.750 & Apr pork cutout up 0.500 @ 112.000
  • Cash Lean Index up 0.88 @ 99.38
  • Hogs continue to see amazing strength
  • Bullish export sales report will continue to underpin the market, especially in light of the fact that China accounted for nearly half of those sales
  • Strong consumer demand will keep packers aggressive
  • Saturday’s week to date slaughter at 2.470 million head, compared to 2.554 million last week


Brandon Doherty

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