TFM Midday Update 4-7-2022

CORN

  • May corn down 2 @ 7.55
  • USDA reported an increase of 30.8 mb of corn export sales for 21/22 and an increase of 5.7 mb for 22/23
  • Pre-report estimate for US corn carryout at 1,400 mb (vs 1,440 mb in March)
  • Argentina’s 7 day forecast is mostly dry, adding to crop stress
  • International Energy Agency is considering the release of 60 million barrels of crude oil from reserves

SOYBEANS

  • May soybeans up 20 @ 16.40
  • USDA reported an increase of 29.4 mb of soybean export sales for 21/22 and an increase of 11.0 mb for 22/23
  • Pre-report estimate for US soybean carryout at 254 mb (vs 285 mb in March)
  • Shanghai, China is still on lockdown, increasing concerns about their import demand
  • May soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange remain expensive around the equivalent of $21.01 per bushel

 

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WHEAT

  • May wheat down 8 @ 10.30, May KC down 3 @ 10.82, May MNPLS down 5 @ 11.04
  • USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb of wheat export sales for 21/22 and an increase of 8.2 mb for 22/23
  • Pre-report estimate for US wheat carryout at 654 mb (vs 653 mb in March)
  • After a month and a half Ukraine is still fighting Russian forces, increasing concern each day about their exports
  • USDA may lower US wheat exports tomorrow due to poor performance so far

CATTLE

  • Apr LC up 0.325 @ 138.025 & Apr FC down 0.175 @ 156.925
  • Cash cattle expected to remain steady for the week
  • Slightly lower corn futures could be supportive to cattle
  • May feeder cattle have a small chart gap above current levels
  • Choice cuts down 0.49 and select down 1.85
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/6: down 0.22 @ 155.54

HOGS

  • Apr hogs up 0.400 @ 99.150 & Apr pork cutout down 0.150 @ 105.250
  • Long liquidation may have run its course
  • Packers were not aggressive this week
  • Fundamentals have not changed with the anticipation of tighter supplies to come
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 4/7: down 0.58 @ 101.08

Author

Brandon Doherty

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