TFM Midday Update 4-7-21

CORN

  • May up 4 @ 5.58 & Dec up 1 @ 4.83
  • Strong trade in calendar spreads indicating continued strong domestic demand
  • Concerning drier weather in S. Brazil for safrinha regions
  • Consultancy Agro Consult revised corn estimate for Brazil to 78.3 mmt – down 4.5 mmt
  • Basis remains firm throughout US as farmers are slowly getting into the fields
  • Beneficial rains expected to fall over much of corn belt in US this week
  • Friday’s USDA report expected to have higher export sales and declining ending stocks

SOYBEANS

  • May down 9 @ 14.09 & Nov down 2 @ 12.69
  • Bean oil takes a breather today – soybeans down for most of trade so far
  • Tightening supplies – Friday ending stocks are expected to get even tighter from USDA
  • Brazil appears to be supplying China with beans for now
  • Friday trade is expected the USDA to report a record large Brazilian crop at 134 mmt
  • With current pace of US demand – both export & crush – suggest a fall in ending stocks

WHEAT

  • May up 1 @ 6.17, KC May up 8 @ 5.63, MNPLS May up 11 @ 6.22
  • New crop MNPLS wheat headed for 3rd consecutive day higher
  • Dryness in northern plains the US expected to continue
  • Paris milling futures are lower again today due to lower EU & Black Sea prices
  • Egypt bought 345K mt of wheat from Russia & Ukraine – expor t taxes don’t seem to deterrent
  • Beneficial rains in S. Dakota, Nebraska, and KS should improve yields

CATTLE

  • June LC up .20 @ 122.80 & May FC up .45 @ 146.92
  • Boxed beef prices closed higher yesterday – choice up $4.10 and select up 1.44
  • Packers seeing margins expand due to rallying boxed beef & need of cattle is growing
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 121K head
  • Handful of trade reported in Kansas yesterday @ $121
  • Feeder Cattle Index for April 5, down .10 @ 139.70
  • Open interest gained 1747 for June futures & lost 256 contracts for April FC

HOGS

  • April Hogs up .65 @ 102.75 & April Pork Cutout  up .22 @ 112.10
  • Market looking for strong exports in tomorrow’s report – last week’s was marketing year high
  • Tightening supplies keep packers aggressively bidding
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 493K head
  • Cash lean index for April 2, up .72 @ 100.10
  • O/I: Lost 1419 positions for April hogs & pork cutout futures lost 87 positions

Author

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Amberlee Bratcher

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