TFM Midday Update 4-7-21

CORN

May up 4 @ 5.58 & Dec up 1 @ 4.83
Strong trade in calendar spreads indicating continued strong domestic demand
Concerning drier weather in S. Brazil for safrinha regions
Consultancy Agro Consult revised corn estimate for Brazil to 78.3 mmt – down 4.5 mmt
Basis remains firm throughout US as farmers are slowly getting into the fields
Beneficial rains expected to fall over much of corn belt in US this week
Friday’s USDA report expected to have higher export sales and declining ending stocks

May down 9 @ 14.09 & Nov down 2 @ 12.69
Bean oil takes a breather today – soybeans down for most of trade so far
Tightening supplies – Friday ending stocks are expected to get even tighter from USDA
Brazil appears to be supplying China with beans for now
Friday trade is expected the USDA to report a record large Brazilian crop at 134 mmt
With current pace of US demand – both export & crush – suggest a fall in ending stocks

May up 1 @ 6.17, KC May up 8 @ 5.63, MNPLS May up 11 @ 6.22
New crop MNPLS wheat headed for 3^rd consecutive day higher
Dryness in northern plains the US expected to continue
Paris milling futures are lower again today due to lower EU & Black Sea prices
Egypt bought 345K mt of wheat from Russia & Ukraine – expor t taxes don’t seem to deterrent
Beneficial rains in S. Dakota, Nebraska, and KS should improve yields

June LC up .20 @ 122.80 & May FC up .45 @ 146.92
Boxed beef prices closed higher yesterday – choice up $4.10 and select up 1.44
Packers seeing margins expand due to rallying boxed beef & need of cattle is growing
Today’s slaughter est. at 121K head
Handful of trade reported in Kansas yesterday @ $121
Feeder Cattle Index for April 5, down .10 @ 139.70
Open interest gained 1747 for June futures & lost 256 contracts for April FC

April Hogs up .65 @ 102.75 & April Pork Cutout up .22 @ 112.10
Market looking for strong exports in tomorrow’s report – last week’s was marketing year high
Tightening supplies keep packers aggressively bidding
Hog slaughter estimated at 493K head
Cash lean index for April 2, up .72 @ 100.10
O/I: Lost 1419 positions for April hogs & pork cutout futures lost 87 positions

Amberlee Bratcher