TFM Midday Update 4-8-2024

CORN

According to the CFTC’s report on Friday, the combined short position in corn, wheat, and the soy complex by the managed funds reached 593,000 contracts – this is an April record.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop by 2 mmt to 52 mmt. They cited damage from Spiroplasma bacteria as the cause of the decline.
Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to warm up after rains over the past weekend. This should help speed up planting of crops.
Although the impact of the avian flu outbreak should be minimal to mammals, there is still concern about a potential drop in feed demand that may affect the grain markets. This would likely be due to consumer safety concerns as the reports reach mainstream media.

AgRural has estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest to be 78% complete, a 4% increase from last week.
The USDA’s current estimate of Brazilian soybean production at 151.7 mmt is well above CONAB, but may be adjusted on this week’s WASDE report.
Soybean meal is trading higher this morning after reports last week indicated that February soybean meal exports were 48% above last year and record large.
Despite reports of increased farmer selling in Brazil, their soybean basis continues to firm, which may indicate a smaller crop, or better demand than anticipated.

All three US wheat classes are trading higher this morning. If Chicago closes in positive territory, it would be the fourth higher session in a row.
Supportive to wheat price is news that over the weekend there were attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. This is the same location that was in the news a few months ago for similar reasons. At this time, it is unclear who is behind the attack, but it raises concerns about what could happen to the surrounding agricultural area in the event of a disaster.
Globally, India is projecting their wheat crop at 112.5 mmt, but a private estimate from a flour miller’s group is anticipating a 105 mmt crop. In the southern hemisphere, Australia is expected to plant 1% to 3% more wheat acres according to some private analysts.

Brandon Doherty