TFM Midday Update 4-8-21

CORN

  • May up 17 @ 5.77-1/2 & Dec up 7-3/4 @ 4.93-1/4
  • Argentina’s weather conditions will continue to be good for late maturing summer crops
  • Week ending April 2, Ethanol production 975K barrels per day – up 45.1% from last year
  • Corn up today seemingly on trade positioning alone – traders anticipate bullish USDA report
  • Weekly export sales 757,000 K – down 5% from last week
  • US weather currently looks friendly/optimal for planting across much of corn-belt

SOYBEANS

  • May up 3 @ 14.11-3/4 & Nov up 2-1/2 @ 12.73-1/4
  • In Brazil – net drying still expected for next 7-10 days
  • Weekly export sales 92,500 mt – marketing year low
  • Basis remains firm as supplies tighten – expected to tighten further in tomorrow’s report
  • Many believe soybean prices are still too low – $15.00+ soybeans seem to be a real possibility

WHEAT

  • May up 10-1/2 @ 6.26-3/4, KC May up 14 @ 5.77-1/4, MNPLS May up 15-1/2 @ 6.40
  • HRW wheat region expected to be wetter than expected April 15-19
  • Refinitiv Commodities Research increased wheat production by 2% to 49.1 million tons
  • Drought risk still very high in northern plains/Dakotas – pushes futures higher today
  • Russian wheat outlook continue positive as soil moisture reserves improve
  • Weekly exports 82,000 mt – marketing year low

CATTLE

  • June LC down .125 @ 125.15 & May FC down 1.25 @ 151.425
  • Packers appear to be willing to bid higher for cattle this week – driving futures higher
  • Beef exports reported 18,200 metric tons – slightly lower than last week
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 120K head
  • Cash trade reported yesterday mostly $120-$121
  • Feeder Cattle Index for April 6, up .28 @ 139.98
  • Open interest gained 758 for June futures & lost 159 contracts for April FC

HOGS

  • April Hogs up .45 @ 103.325 & April Pork Cutout up .45 @ 112.25
  • If cash hog prices run out of steam, futures could see a pull back
  • Pork exports reported at 33,400 tons – down 45% from last week
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 494K head
  • Cash lean index for April 5, up .24 @ 100.34
  • O/I: Lost 435 positions for April hogs & pork cutout futures gained 9 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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